Georgetown vs. Villanova College Basketball prediction, preview
It’s a battle of traditional Big East powers on Thursday night at Madison Square Garden as the No. 3 seed Villanova Wildcats take on the No. 11 seed Georgetown Hoyas in a quarterfinal matchup at 9:30 p.m. ET. The game can be seen on FS1.
There was a lot of excitement when the Hoyas achieved a coup by stealing away head coach Ed Cooley from Big East rival Providence College, but things have not gone as planned on the Hilltop. The Hoyas have missed the NCAA tournament in each of Cooley’s three seasons and have taken a step back this year, finishing in last place in the Big East regular season standings at 6-14 in conference play and 15-17 overall. That is a three-win decrease for Georgetown compared to last season, and it seems that without a miracle run to a Big East tournament title it will be another year that the Hoyas don’t go dancing. Georgetown was 81st this season in KenPom, ranking 91st in offensive rating (114.7) and 84th in defensive rating (104.6). The Hoyas did upset No. 6 seed DePaul on Wednesday, thanks to a double-double from Vince Iwuchkwu (17 points, 14 rebounds).
On the other side, first-year head man Kevin Willard has breathed new life into a Villanova program that scuffled in three seasons under Kyle Neptune. Willard led the Wildcats to a surprising third-place regular season finish with a 15-5 record in conference play (the program’s best since 2021-22) and his 24 overall wins are the most for a first-year head coach in program history. Freshman Acaden Lewis is a big reason for the Nova turnaround, finishing as an All-Big East Second Team selection while setting freshman program records in assists (165) and steals (61). Senior center Duke Brennan was also a key contributor, posting 14 double-doubles en route to an All-Big East Third Team selection. Nova finished 30th in KenPom this season, ranking 39th in offensive rating (121.0) and 32nd in defensive rating (99.9).
The Hoyas hold a 6-2 series lead in meetings between the two teams at the Big East Tournament, while Villanova leads the all-time series, 53-47. However, Villanova swept Georgetown this season, defeating the Hoyas, 66-51, on January 21 and by a score of 80-73 on February 7. Of note, Villanova has won each of its last 10 games against non-AP-ranked opponents and has won the first half in each of its last seven night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Both teams enter on a two-game win streak, but it’s hard to see a scenario where the Hoyas keep up with the Wildcats at the Garden. Bettors are siding with the Wildcats, as Nova is getting 89% of the handle and 98% of bets on the moneyline and 53% of the handle and 73% of bets against the spread, according to the DraftKings Network Betting Splits page. There is certainly more desperation for the Hoyas, with the Wildcats projected as a 7-seed by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, but look for Nova to simply be too much for Georgetown and to advance to a likely showdown on Friday at 8 p.m. ET with 2-seed UConn, which is a 16.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook in a matchup against 10-seed Xavier tonight at 7 p.m. ET.
