The No. 7 Colorado State Rams take on the No. 2 ranked San Diego State Aztecs on Thursday in the Mountain West Tournament Quarterfinals. The game tips off at 9:00 p.m. ET in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The Aztecs are listed as 5.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 142.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and pick for this Mountain West Tournament college basketball matchup.
Colorado State vs. San Diego State prediction, preview
San Diego State may be a few seasons removed from its 2023 national title game run, but Brian Dutcher’s blueprint hasn’t changed. The Aztecs still hang their hat on strong half-court defense, physicality, and controlling tempo. That profile travels well in tournament settings, especially on a neutral floor where games often tighten up. SDSU closed the regular season 2-3 over its final five, but the 89-86 win over UNLV in the finale was important. When the Aztecs are scoring in the high 70s or 80s, it usually means their perimeter shots are falling, and that unlocks their ceiling. Plus, senior wing Miles Byrd, the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, anchors everything. He led the team in both blocks (36) and steals (57), giving SDSU disruptive length on the perimeter. Offensively, Reese Dixon-Waters leads the team at 13.2 PPG (42% FG), but the X-factor tonight could be BJ Davis. Davis exploded for 30 off the bench against UNLV, hitting four threes at 40%. If he spaces the floor, SDSU becomes much harder to guard in the half court.
Colorado State enters having won nine of its last 10, including a 67-63 grinder over Fresno State in the opening round. They’re comfortable operating in the half court but rely heavily on shot-making rather than forcing turnovers. Against Fresno State, Jase Butler caught fire with 20 points and six made threes, while Carey Booth added 18. The Rams don’t have a 15+ PPG scorer, but they have multiple players capable of 20 on a given night. That balance has fueled their late-season surge.
Colorado State vs. San Diego State pick
Colorado State’s form is impressive, but this is a bad stylistic matchup. The Rams rely on clean perimeter looks and rhythm offense — exactly what SDSU’s physical, switch-heavy defense disrupts. On a neutral floor, in a tournament setting that usually favors defense and experience, the Aztecs have the higher floor. If Davis gives them secondary scoring behind Dixon-Waters, SDSU has the shot creation edge as well.
