The World Baseball Classic could end prematurely for Team USA thanks to an unexpected 8-6 loss to Italy on Tuesday night. The United States concludes pool play with a 3-1 record and now relies on Mexico and Italy to determine its fate.
Team USA sits in second place in Pool B, but it can finish either first, second or third based on the result of the Mexico vs. Italy game on Wednesday, March 11. The top two teams in each pool will advance to the eight-team knockout stage.
If Italy wins the matchup, it will finish the group stage at 4-0 and the United States will advance as the second seed from Pool B. If Mexico wins, things get complicated because there’s a three-way tie for first in Pool B. All three teams would share a 3-1 record and 1-1 record against each other.
The first tiebreaker is the “lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the teams that are tied,” according to CBS Sports. Team USA allowed 11 runs in 18 innings/54 defensive outs, which converts to a .2037 quotient. For Team USA to advance, either Italy or Mexico has to have a worse quotient.
It’s a lot of math, but it comes down to this, according to Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper. If Mexico wins and scores more than five runs, the United States advances. If Mexico wins and scores less than five runs, Italy advances.
This is reliant on Italy vs. Mexico being a nine-inning game. If it heads to extras, the quotient will be altered and will affect who moves on. Because there isn’t a score or innings limit in extras, it’s difficult to determine how the quotient will look ahead of time.
If there’s a tie with the quotient, the next tiebreaker is the same quotient formula but for earned runs. The third tie breaker is the highest batting average in games between the tied teams. The fourth is drawing lots, according to CBS Sports.
It likely won’t reach this point, but there’s the rundown in case chaos takes place. In short, if Italy wins, the United States moves on. If Mexico wins, it needs to score five or more runs for Team USA to advance.
2026 World Baseball Classic Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Despite not having agency over its fate, Team USA is the second favorite to win the 2026 World Baseball Classic. It has +220 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, only trailing the Dominican Republic (+190).
