Richmond and Loyola Chicago walk into Pittsburgh carrying very different kinds of weight. Richmond is the No. 11 seed at 15-16 overall and 5-13 in the Atlantic 10, Loyola is the No. 14 seed at 8-23 and 4-14, and the winner gets Davidson tomorrow at PPG Paints Arena. That is the kind of bracket slot where nobody feels comfortable. Richmond is trying to keep a shaky season alive after a brutal finish; Loyola is trying to prove the late pulse is real and not just noise from a lost year. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Richmond Spiders and the Loyola Chicago Ramblers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Richmond vs. Loyola Chicago prediction, preview
The cleanest team-math tension is still obvious. Richmond is the cleaner offensive team: 77.0 points per game, 44.9% from the field, 36.7% from 3, 75.3% at the line, and only 306 turnovers in 31 games. Loyola is the rougher offense, but it is the sturdier front-line team: 66.8 points per game, 33.8 rebounds per game, 118 team blocks, and a basically even rebounding margin. That split showed up perfectly in the Feb. 28 meeting. Richmond did a lot of its usual good work, getting to the line 33 times and committing only five turnovers, but it still lost 69-66 because it shot 29.8%, got out-rebounded 38-25, and lost the paint 32-16. That is the matchup in one frame. Richmond wants this game on skill, spacing, and guard control. Loyola wants it on length, collisions, and second efforts around the rim.
The player layer is why I do not trust Richmond to separate. AJ Lopez is still the cleanest bucket in the game. He averages 13.6 points, shoots 40.6% from 3 and 86.0% at the line, and he just gave Loyola 23 in the first meeting. Aiden Argabright, now an A-10 All-Rookie Team pick, adds 10.8 points per game and has carried real freshman scoring responsibility all season. Mike Walz is the 6-foot-11 connector who leads Richmond in assists at 2.4 per game, but Richmond is thinner up front now because Jonathan Beagle had finger surgery on Feb. 19 and Richmond’s own notes say he is expected to miss the rest of the season. That is a problem against a Loyola team whose current best pressure points are all front-facing. Xavier Amos leads the Ramblers at 11.7 points per game and just dropped 25 on 9-of-12 shooting with six made 3s at Saint Louis. Kayde Dotson went for 19 in that same game, then followed with 17 against George Washington. Miles Rubin is the matchup-bender at 10.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 2.42 blocks per game, and Loyola’s notes have him 10th nationally in blocks per game and 11th in total blocks. He also put 19 on Richmond in the first meeting. Richmond has the cleaner scorers. Loyola has the more dangerous size package for this exact game.
Loyola Chicago vs. Richmond pick, best bet
Richmond is carrying fresh scar tissue into the building. Its regular season ended with that 79-77 loss at Duquesne after leading by 30, a collapse so extreme it became one of the rarest comebacks in Division I this season. Then layer in the Loyola rematch, where Richmond already saw the exact pressure point that can beat it: even with the turnover battle and free-throw volume in its favor, it could not hold up on the glass or in the paint. Loyola, meanwhile, sounds like a team that still thinks it found something. Drew Valentine said after the Richmond win that the Ramblers had their best three days of practice all year, and he said that while noting Loyola won without its starting point guard. Loyola then closed the regular season by beating George Washington 68-62 behind Dotson’s 17, Amos’s 15, and another busy Rubin line with six assists and four blocks. That does not make Loyola the better team over 31 games. It does make Loyola feel more live in this exact pressure-cooker setup than a 14 seed usually does.
So the bet is Loyola Chicago +4.5. Richmond is still the more trustworthy offense in a vacuum, and if Lopez gets a clean whistle game while the Spiders finally shoot like themselves, they can absolutely win. But I do not think Richmond has shown enough separation power to lay this number against a team that already proved it can bend the matchup its way. Loyola’s size is real. Rubin’s rim presence is real. Amos and Dotson are bringing more recent scoring life into March than Loyola had for most of the winter.
Richmond is still the cleaner team, but Loyola already showed it can survive the turnover gap and still win this matchup with rebounding, paint scoring, and rim protection. I’m betting this lands in the usual Richmond range—competitive, tense, and too tight for comfortable favorite separation. Final score projection: Richmond 72, Loyola Chicago 69.
Best bet: Loyola Chicago +4.5 (-110) vs. Richmond
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