The Big East Tournament, located at historic Madison Square Garden, gets started on Wednesday. If we’ve learned anything from this conference, expect the unexpected. #8 Butler (16-15, 7-13) has shown flashes of greatness throughout the year, but consistency has been a problem. The Bulldogs will hope to earn a victory against #9 Providence (14-17, 7-13). Can the fast-paced Friars keep their season alive this afternoon?
Providence enters today as 1.5-point favorites (-102) over Butler. The total is set at 163.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Wednesday’s game between the Friars and Bulldogs.
Providence vs. Butler prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, the Friars love to play fast. They’ve delivered the nation’s 22nd-highest adjusted tempo (71.1) per KenPom. As a result, there are several players on this middling squad that have put up impressive numbers. The headliner is Jaylin Sellers, leading the team with 18.1 points per game on 48% shooting (43.9% 3PT). To boot, the senior leads the Big East with an 86.5% free throw percentage. He’s joined by bucket-getters Jason Edwards (16.5 PPG) and Stefan Vaaks (15.2 PPG). However, four other Providence players are averaging at least 7.0 points per game.
Unfortunately for PC, Corey Floyd (hamstring) is questionable to suit up tonight. The guard is one of the team’s better wing stoppers, and his potential absence is notable. That’s due in part because the Friars need help on that end of the floor. Providence’s 110.1 adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom is easily the worst among all Big East schools. This group doesn’t force many mistakes either, ranking 351st in defensive turnover percentage (13.3%).
It’s clear that Providence’s path towards winning games is to simply outscore the opposition. Butler utilizes a somewhat different style of play, instead leaning on two elite playmakers. The duo of Michael Ajayi and Finley Bizjack has been among the best in all of college basketball. Together, the pair have combined for 33.4 points per game. Ajayi is one of the Big East’s premier players, leading the conference in rebounding (11.1 REB). Bizjack, more of an outside threat, has enjoyed 11 different 20+ point performances. In fact, the guard dropped a season-high 30 points when these teams last met in February.
Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, depth is a major issue. Outside of Ajayi and Bizjack, no player on the roster is averaging double-digit points per game. To make matters worse, guard Azavier Robinson (wrist) underwent season-ending surgery last month. This isn’t a stellar defense by any means, ranking 115th in adjusted efficiency on KenPom. Unlike Providence, with a bevy of different options on offense, Butler is heavily dependent on its superstar duo. That didn’t pan out during its last meeting with PC, a 97-87, double-overtime Friars win. However, during their first meeting in December, the Bulldogs were the ones who eked out a double-OT victory.
Providence vs. Butler pick, best bet
Despite starting off the season strong, Butler has fallen into a rut. The Bulldogs enter this one having dropped eight of their last 11 contests. It’s no coincidence that they began to struggle following Robinson’s injury. In comparison, Providence has delivered a more respectable 5-4 record over its last nine outings. Look for the Friars to set the tone early and pull out a tournament-opening win.
