Pittsburgh (13-19, 5-13) delivered the first major upset of the ACC Tournament on Tuesday, taking down Stanford. Now, the Panthers will hope to keep it going against a far more formidable opponent. NC State (19-12, 10-8) has enjoyed a solid first season under new head coach Will Wade. Can the Wolfpack bolster their March Madness resume with another win?
NC State enters as 9.5-point favorites (-112) over Pitt. The total is set at 145.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Wednesday’s game between the Panthers and Wolfpack.
NC State vs. Pittsburgh prediction, preview
A month ago, NC State looked like NCAA Tournament locks. However, the school has now dropped four straight games. That includes losses to middling squads such as Notre Dame and Stanford. As a result, this afternoon’s contest becomes a must-win for Wade’s crew. Fortunately for the Wolfpack, this group should be talented enough to deliver a pivotal victory. After all, NCST ranks 35th on KenPom in net rating (+19.61) and 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency (123.4). A high-powered scoring attack makes this one of the ACC’s more difficult teams to defend.
A balanced offense for the Wolfpack possesses four different players averaging at least 13.0 points per game. It helps that three of those names are seniors: Ven-Allen Lubin, Quadir Copeland and Darrion Williams. Guard Paul McNeil, a sophomore, rounds out the quartet. NC State loves to shoot, hitting 38.0% of its three-point attempts. That’s the 19th-best mark in college basketball this season. To boot, this offense has delivered the nation’s ninth-lowest turnover ratio (13.2%).
The other end of the floor is where things get a bit more precarious. North Carolina State loves beating others from beyond the arc. However, the team is also vulnerable on the perimeter. Opponents are taking 45.2% of their shots from three-point range vs. the Wolfpack. That’s the 30th-highest rate allowed by any team. An inability to guard the three-point line can lend itself to shooting variance on any given night.
On paper, Pitt doesn’t look like the kind of team to exploit defensive weaknesses. After all, the Panthers are averaging just 70.0 points per game, second-lowest among all ACC schools. To make matters worse, talented scorer Brandin Cummings has been ruled out for the rest of the season due to an ankle injury. That leaves head coach Jeff Capel with a fairly top-heavy group at his disposal. Cameron Corhen leads the way down low with 13.2 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. Elsewhere, Barry Dunning has notched 12.6 points and 5.9 rebounds a night. The back court is less impressive, as only Damarco Minor is averaging more than 2.1 assists per game.
If the Panthers are going to earn their second straight upset, they’ll need to make this one ugly. That’s not out of the question, given their lack of urgency on offense. Pitt has a 63.5 adjusted tempo on KenPom, 20th-slowest in college basketball. The team is also tough on the glass, ranking 76th in offensive rebounding percentage (28.3%). In comparison, NC State is 219th in defensive rebounding percentage (70.8%). That could enable Pittsburgh to extend some possessions down the stretch. However, an overall lack of shooting looms large on Wednesday.
NC State vs. Pittsburgh pick, best bet
Maybe I’m a victim of recency bias, but the Wolfpack aren’t a team I feel comfortable backing against anyone right now. That’s not to say Pitt should be anything close to favored, but a nail-biting affair wouldn’t come as a surprise. Keep in mind, the Panthers are the much better all-around rebounding team that limits overall possessions. Those traits could prove to be equalizers against a more talented NC State roster. A single-digit affair feels more than likely this afternoon.
