There’s an excellent Western Conference showdown in the late window of tonight’s NBA slate. The Houston Rockets just reached the 40-win mark last night and now get a difficult matchup — at altitude and on night two of a back-to-back — against the Denver Nuggets. These teams have faced off three times already this season with the first two meetings ending in incredibly close finishes, so this has the makings of premier, popcorn-worthy programming.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Denver as a 6.5-point favorite at home with -290 odds to win on the Moneyline. The game total is set at 231.5 combined points.
Here are the top Rockets vs. Nuggets prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for this matchup.
Best Rockets vs. Nuggets player prop bets
Alperen Sengun under 17.5 points (-117)
For the second straight day, we’re fading Alperen Sengun this evening. The Turkish center is a very good player, but his recent form is reason for significant concern if you’re a Rockets fan. He averages 20.3 points and 9.1 rebounds on the season overall and earned the second All-Star selection of his career as an injury replacement. However, his stats after the season resumed from the break are rather rough. He’s appeared in 11 games over this sample, averaging 18.8 points and 7.8 rebounds.
You may find yourself asking what the big deal is since that’s only a slight drop-off. Let’s look at it this way instead. Sengun had 24 games of 20+ points in 46 games prior to the break. Following it, he’s his that mark in just three of his 11 appearances. Moreover, he’s stayed under tonight’s line of 17.5 points on eight occasions over this same sample. Even if you go back to the start of February, he still fell under 17.5 points in 12/17 total appearances.
Whether it’s a confidence issue or something else, the results in the scoring column just haven’t been great for Sengun over the last month-plus. Beyond that, his results against the Nuggets in particular have provided a mixed bag to draw from after he scored just 14 and eight points in two of three games against them this season, posting 33 points in the other matchup. With Aaron Gordon back in the lineup, Denver has an additional frontcourt defender to throw at Sengun. The Rockets’ star is good, but tired legs may be an issue, so we’re fading him here.
Aaron Gordon over 5.5 rebounds (+103)
This next one is a really interesting case given the context of his season thus far. Aaron Gordon has appeared in just 25 games after battling hamstring injuries for most of the campaign. He missed over a month with his most recent flare-up before returning to the court just two games ago, but he jumped right back into action after a sluggish first contest with 23 points and 10 rebounds on Monday night.
On the full season (albeit a small-ish sample given his injury woes), Gordon averages 6.2 rebounds per game. He’s been a key member of the Nuggets’ frontcourt for several years now and typically hits the boards at a high level thanks to his 6-foot-8 frame and athletic gifts — this season has been no exception when healthy as he’s pulled down at least six rebounds in 16/25 contests.
After looking like his old self last time out over the course of his 28 minutes, I do think that Gordon can get over tonight’s line of 5.5 rebounds even in a difficult matchup. The Rockets lead the league on the glass, which makes Gordon’s presence even more crucial if Denver is to keep this game within reach. Assuming he gets around that same share of minutes, the forward should get over this prop at plus odds.
