The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Auburn Tigers on Wednesday afternoon in the SEC Tournament. The game tips off at 3:00 p.m. ET in Nashville, Tennessee.
The Tigers are listed as 7.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at O/U 158.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and pick for this SEC college basketball matchup.
Mississippi State at Auburn prediction, preview
The Auburn Tigers had a very disappointing season. Bruce Pearl turned this program into one of the best in college basketball over the past few years. Pearl took this team to six of the past seven NCAA Tournaments, including two Final Four trips. This team just went to the Final Four last year, before Pearl decided to retire. Rather than allow the team to go out and hire the best possible candidate, Bruce Pearl waited until right before this season started to retire, so that Auburn was forced into promoting his son, Steven Pearl, to be the new head coach. The nepotism hire did not work out well in Year 1. Despite having some strong individual talents, the Tigers went 16-15 overall and 7-11 in SEC play.
Mississippi State basketball was a one-man show this season. Josh Hubbard averaged 22.1 points per game this season, the second-most in the SEC and 10th-most in the country. Hubbard is a truly elite individual scorer, but he did not have much talent around him. The Bulldogs ended up finishing the regular season on a five-game losing streak to drop to 5-13 in SEC play. The Bulldogs come into this conference tournament as a defeated group, with no positive momentum. They have particularly struggled on the defensive end, where they rank 15th out of 16 teams in the SEC in points per game allowed this season.
Mississippi State at Auburn pick
My best bet for this game is on the over 158.5 total points. The way Mississippi State has been playing heading into this tournament is a bad sign for what Auburn could do in this game. Despite Auburn failing to win games, it has a couple of standout individual scorers, Keyshawn Hall and Tahaad Pettiford. Hall was one of the best scorers in the SEC this season, averaging 20.4 points per game. Auburn can score with anyone, ranking 13th in the nation in offensive rating this season. However, it cannot get stops, ranking 124th nationally in defensive rating.
Mississippi State and Auburn are two of the three teams in the SEC giving up over 80 points per game to opponents. Mississippi State completely lost it defensively down the stretch, giving up 97 or more points in four of its final five games. Auburn should hang a huge number here with its athletic group running the floor. However, Josh Hubbard and Mississippi State should keep up against an Auburn group that lacks effort defensively. This game should turn into a track meet, and these two teams should push the total over 158.5 points.
