Kentucky vs. LSU College Basketball prediction, preview
Kentucky is playing earlier than it would like to be on the first day of SEC Tournament play, and needs to make a run in the conference tourney for seeding purposes. The Wildcats lost five of their last seven regular season games, but had a tough schedule, priced as underdogs in four of the losses.
The regular season ended with a valiant effort against an elite Florida team, and Kentucky has shown flashes of playing terrific basketball. Meanwhile, LSU comes in at the bottom of the SEC, losing eight of its last nine, and finishing 3-15 in SEC play. The Tigers only won one game against SEC competition as an underdog, and it came catching just 2.5 points against Ole Miss.
LSU just hasn’t shown the ability to step up and win games against quality competition like this. It took Texas A&M down to the wire several times on Saturday night, but ultimately lost in triple overtime, so the Tigers are also coming off a marathon game entering an SEC Tournament early afternoon game.
From a matchup standpoint, Kentucky is pretty balanced, ranking top-40 on KenPom in both offensive and defensive efficiency. LSU’s offense ranks outside the top-50, while the defense is just 113th by the same metrics. The Wildcats also hold a significant edge on the glass, ranking 38th in the country in rebound rate. The Tigers are outside of the top-100.
With advantages all over the floor, more talent, size and desperation, I think we see Kentucky dominate this game. I’m fine laying the 7.5 points with the Wildcats, but have made my larger wager on the Wildcats going wire to wire. Kentucky to lead at halftime and win the game is -155 on DraftKings Sportsbook, a market that is priced around -200 at most shops.
