It’s wild how much can change in 24 hours.
All credit to the schedule makers for the 2026 World Baseball Classic. Give these people a raise for correctly guessing the right teams in Pool A, Pool B and Pool D to leave for a matchup on the final day of the round robin. It’s made for what should be an incredibly captivating evening of baseball. That said, there’s no way they could’ve known how important this contest between Italy and Mexico would be.
A week ago, it seemed like this game would decide the second team to emerge out of Pool B, with the USA obviously set to skate through the opening round with a 4-0 record. However, after last night’s crushing 8-6 loss to the Italians, there’s now a scenario where the Americans are left out of the knockout round entirely. I truly love this tournament.
Can Mexico advance after finishing third in 2023? Will Italy carry over the momentum from Tuesday night? Will either score enough runs to open the door for the USA? Let’s preview this all-important 7:00 p.m. ET tilt with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Italy vs. Mexico prediction, preview
After getting a marvelous performance from Michael Lorenzen on Tuesday, Italy will turn to its other established MLB starting pitcher on Wednesday — no disrespect to Sam Aldegheri of the Angels. Aaron Nola, welcome to the WBC. No pressure!
If the weight of an elimination game wasn’t enough, Nola is also directly on the heels of the worst campaign of his career. The 32-year-old has been one of baseball’s most durable starters since making his debut with the Phillies in 2015, yet injuries limited the RHP to only 17 starts and 94.1 innings of work. It’s not like Nola was great when available, either. At least, not according to a 6.01 ERA or a 25th percentile opponent hard hit rate (43.3%). However, a 4.12 xERA was far more digestible, and a slight uptick in Nola’s fastball velocity this spring seems to bode well for a bounce-back season in Philadelphia. I’d say it’s likely that he can provide Italy with three or four quality innings this evening.
At the same time, let’s not pretend that it hasn’t been Italy’s bats that have carried it to this 3-0 record in pool play. While the team’s numbers are somewhat inflated thanks to soft matchups against Brazil and Great Britain, only the Dominican Republic enters Wednesday with a higher OPS at the 2026 WBC than Italy’s mark of 1.024. That’s some pretty good company. It’s also impressive that Italy’s done this with Vinnie Pasquantino, Dominic Canzone and Jakob Marsee having combined to hit just .108 (4-for-37) through three games. Instead, it’s been White Sox’s backstop Kyle Teel carrying the offensive load, slashing .667/.714/1.333 in his two starts. Unfortunately for the Italians, Teel left Tuesday’s win with a hamstring issue. You’d have to imagine it’s a long shot he plays tonight.
On Mexico’s side, through the blessing of two in-tournament off days, Javier Assad will toe the rubber for the second time in pool play, after tossing 3.2 scoreless frames against Great Britain back on March 6. That means that Assad has now thrown 9.1 innings for Mexico at the World Baseball Classic in his career, and he’s yet to allow a single run. As an MLB pitcher, the RHP’s stuff has played better out of the bullpen, but that’s selling Assad’s exploits a little short. Assad possesses a respectable 3.72 ERA for the Cubs across 37 appearances (36 starts) since the beginning of 2024. He’s a capable back-end rotation arm, and in the WBC, those are as valuable as gold.
Just like their opponent on Wednesday, the Mexicans have feasted on the low-end pitching in Pool B, even scoring 16 runs in six innings against Brazil on Sunday. Nola will present a much tougher test, but the top of Mexico’s lineup is brimming with elite talent and upside. Jarren Duran already has three home runs in this tournament, and he’s 2-for-2 with a pair of doubles in his career against Nola. Randy Arozarena, Jonathan Aranda and Ajejandro Kirk round out a fearsome first-four hitters that can do damage in a hurry.
Italy vs. Mexico pick, best bet
Best Bet: Mexico -1.5 (-125)
While I’m a little surprised to see Mexico favored so heavily, the off day plays a massive role here. Italy’s weakness, like so many teams at the WBC, is pitching depth, and it’s unclear if bullpen arms like Matt Festa, Ron Marinaccio and Greg Weissert will be available to pitch on back-to-back days. Italy may have the slight advantage in the first three innings, but Mexico’s rested crop of relievers should win out in the end.
