Idaho vs. Montana College Basketball prediction, preview
Idaho and Montana will face of late on Wednesday night in the Big Sky Championship game, with a trip to the NCAA Tournament on the line. The matchup is an unlikely one in the first place, with the 7-seeded Vandals laying points against the 4-seeded Grizzlies. The tournament has been played in Boise, so Idaho has had a bit of an advantage playing close to home.
Despite being the 7-seed, Idaho has been favored in all three games along the way. As the 4-seed, Montana has only had to play twice, but won both games as the underdog. It’s a double revenge game for the Vandals, who lost both regular season matchups to the Grizzlies. In fact, Montana has owned this matchup in recent seasons, winning the last nine head-to-head meetings.
I think that changes on Wednesday night, with the Vandals playing their best basketball of the season. The metrics have Idaho as the superior team, despite the records, with both teams ranking similar on defense, but the Vandals having the edge offensively. Montana is also one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, ranking 259th in rebound rate nationally. Idaho ranks just outside of the top-100, and should be able to take advantage on the glass.
We’ve seen plenty of examples of teams that lose twice during the regular season get over the hump in the conference tournament, and I think this will be another one that falls into that category. Idaho is on a 6-1 SU/ATS run, and it playing much better than when it lost to Montana earlier in the season. I’ll back the Vandals to go dancing.
