As part of the Big 12 Conference basketball tournament, the BYU Cougars will face off with the West Virginia Mountaineers.
These teams faced off once already this season. On February 28th, West Virginia produced a 79-71 win over BYU. The Mountaineers held a lead for 79% of the matchup, out-rebounding the Cougars by 10 and forcing 12 turnovers in the matchup.
Looking at the odds for tonight, BYU enters as a 4.5-point favorite and holds -198 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. West Virginia holds +164 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 142.5.
BYU vs. West Virginia preview
The BYU Cougars hold a 22-10 record on the season and have gone 9-9 in Big 12 play. They enter this matchup coming off back-to-back wins over Texas Tech and Kansas State. However, they lost three straight games before this and have lost eight of their past 13 leading into this matchup. On the season, BYU has gone 13-19 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 18 of the 32 games played.
Potential top NBA pick A.J. Dybantsa leads the country in scoring with 25.2 points per game, also notching 6.8 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game. Robert Wright III is not far behind, adding 18.5 points, 4.6 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game, shooting 41.2% on three-point attempts. BYU was dealt a tough blow midseason with Richie Saunders suffering a torn ACL, forcing the Cougars to make up for his 18.0 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Kennard Davis Jr., Keba Keita, Aleksej Kostic, and Khadim Mboup also play key roles in the rotation.
Kevin Young’s squad is scoring 85.0 points per game, which ranks 21st in the country. BYU also ranks 25th in offensive rating, 42nd in field goal percentage and 151st in three-point percentage. Defensively, teams are scoring 76.2 points per game against the Cougars, which ranks 240th in the country. BYU also ranks 200th in defensive rating, 191st in opponent field goal percentage and 299th in opponent three-point percentage.
The West Virginia Mountaineers enter with an 18-13 overall record and have gone 9-9 in Big 12 play. They are coming off a 77-62 win over UCF in the previous game, but lost four of the five games before this. On the season, the Mountaineers have gone 15-16 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in 21 of their 31 games played.
Honor Huff is the team’s leading scorer with 15.8 points and is shooting 35.3% on 9.7 three-point attempts per game. Brenen Lorient adds 11.6 points and 5.0 rebounds per game, while Chance Moore is the lone other player to average double figures with 10.5 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. Treysen Eaglestaff pitches in 9.7 points and 4.9 rebounds, while Jasper Floyd, DJ Thomas, and Harlan Obioha also play key roles in the rotation.
The Mountaineers lean on a defensive-minded style of play for success. Offensively, they are averaging 69.9 points per game, which ranks 314th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. West Virginia also ranks 222nd in offensive rating, 238th in field goal percentage, and 242nd in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring the eighth-fewest points per game at 64.6 on average. West Virginia also ranks 39th in defensive rating, 43rd in opponent field goal percentage, and 269th in opponent three-point percentage.
BYU vs. West Virginia pick, best bet
The loss of Richie Saunders is a big deal for this BYU team. He has been with the program for four years and has grown into one of their most reliable creators, even as the talent around him has grown through the years. BYU is 6-7 outright in the games since he went down with the torn ACL and 5-8 against the spread in these matchups.
From a side perspective, I like West Virginia to cover the 4.5-point spread with a chance to win outright. The Mountaineers produced a 79-71 win in the first matchup between these two teams. Getting a few points in West Virginia’s favor only helps this outlook.
However, I am backing the game total to remain under the 142.5-point game total for this matchup. Expect West Virginia to assert itself with a physical style of play and make life difficult for BYU throughout. Losing Saunders allows for more of a defensive effort to be put on Dybantsa and Wright III. BYU is more limited in high-level creators than its scoring metrics would suggest, and this is the type of matchup where this can be exposed. The Cougars are averaging 85.0 points per game on the season, but 79.6 per game since Saunders’ injury.
The game total has remained under in 21 of West Virginia’s 31 games this season. This includes back-to-back games entering this matchup and 15 of the last 19 games played. The game total has also remained under in 14 of the Mountaineers’ 18 conference games.
While the two sides put up 150 combined points in the first matchup to go above the game total, BYU shot 47% from the field and 39% on three-point attempts, which were two of the highest marks that WVU has allowed on the season. With the conference tournament setting set to further ratchet up the intensity, expect every basket to be difficult to come by. Count on the Mountaineers leaning on their strong defensive identity and being content playing at a slow pace throughout this matchup. The loss of Saunders is a big deal for BYU, so expect this to be a defensive grind that fails to reach the 142.5 game total.
