Following a tense 5-3 win over Mexico, the United States sit atop Pool B of the World Baseball Classic. Still, the 3-0 Americans will have something to play for tonight against another undefeated squad. Italy, winners of two straight, will face its first major test of the tournament. Can one of the WBC’s better teams take down a juggernaut?
The Americans enter Tuesday as 5.5-run favorites (-115) over Italy. The total is set at 11.5 runs, with first pitch scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET. Let’s take a closer look at the odds and lines for both sides tonight on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Italy vs. United States prediction, preview
It’s a bit surprising to see a fútbol-mad country such as Italy going toe-to-toe with the world’s best baseball nations. However, that’s before realizing that a large chunk of its roster is Italian-American major leaguers. Leading the way on offense is Royals slugger Vinnie Pasquantino. Last season, the All-Star slashed .264/.323/.475 with 32 home runs and 113 RBIs for Kansas City. In two games for Italia, the Pasquatch has reached base once over eight plate appearances.
Fortunately for Italy, this lineup isn’t a one-man show. White Sox catcher Kyle Teel (125 wRC+) has some pop, while Marlins outfielder Jakob Marsee (133 wRC+) is a true five-tool player. Other names to watch include Royals prospect Jac Caglianone and MLB veterans Jon Berti and Dominic Canzone. However, Phillies prospect Dante Nori has been the team’s best batter by a wide margin so far. Through two games, he’s hitting .714 with a pair of home runs.
Pitching is where things get a bit more difficult, especially when facing a jam-packed USA lineup. However, compared to some other WBC clubs, Italy could do a lot worse than Michael Lorenzen. The right-hander is, if nothing else, a solid arm that’s found success against several American hitters. Bobby Witt Jr., Cal Raleigh and Alex Bregman have combined to go 2-for-21 against the veteran. Over 141.2 innings with the Royals last season, Lorenzen notched a 4.64 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
To counter Italy’s experience on the mound, Team USA is opting for some youth. Nolan McLean was unhittable during his brief call-up with the Mets last season. Over eight starts, the rookie notched a 2.06 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 10.7 K/9 ratio. In a pressure-packed environment, it’ll be interesting to see how the 24-year-old operates. Regardless, McLean is supported by an absolutely filthy bullpen. All-Stars such as Mason Miller and David Bednar didn’t toe the slab last night vs. Mexico. I’d expect one, if not both, to make an appearance on Tuesday.
On the other side of the diamond, an absolutely loaded American lineup will hope to make its mark this evening. All five of the USA’s runs on Monday came via the long ball. A whopping 19 runners were left on base, giving Mexico life in what could have been a blowout. One of the players to go deep last night was Aaron Judge, who hit his second homer in three games. The Captain has been his usual dominant self, already getting on base eight times during the WBC. Fellow masher Kyle Schwarber has been phenomenal, as well. Philadelphia’s superstar is currently batting .417 with a homer and two RBIs.
Italy vs. United States pick, best bet
If nothing else, Lorenzen has enough of a resume to suggest he can prevent a blowout. McLean, while electric, is easily the weakest American starting pitcher as well. If there was ever a game to face the USA, it’s this evening following Monday’s emotional victory. While I’m not expecting an upset, the Italians have enough talent to keep this within five runs.
