On Tuesday’s 11-game NBA slate, the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs duel in a showdown between the Eastern and Western Conference’s respective No. 2 seeds. Both teams are among the league’s elite, and the return of Jayson Tatum makes this contest even better than last time the sides matched up back in January.
Here’s a Celtics vs. Spurs prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s game.
Celtics vs. Spurs prediction, preview
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are 43-21 on the year, bringing an 8-2 record over their last 10 games to the table. They’re second in the NBA in NETRTG at +8.0 and despite falling last in pace, they still get plenty of shots up with the third-most FGA and 3PA per game. The offense produces 114.5 PPG but ranks second in OFFRTG, shooting 46.5% overall and 36.3% from deep with the third-most 3PM/GM. Despite falling second-to-last in assists, their 2.018 AST/TO ratio ranks seventh-best as well. Plus, Boston sits third in rebounds per game with 46.4 and possesses the NBA’s best defense with just 106.9 PPG allowed to opponents and the fifth-best DEFRTG.
This is still Jaylen Brown’s team as the All-Star produces 28.7 points and 7.2 rebounds a night as the primary option on offense. The return of Jayson Tatum roughly 10 months after a torn Achilles raises the roster’s upside though, as he averages 17.5 points and 7.5 boards while settling back in and knocking off the rust of his layoff. Derrick White and Payton Pritchard hold down the guard rotation with 17.2 PTS/5.7 AST and 16.9 PTS/5.4 AST apiece, though the latter won’t play tonight due to neck spasms. Neemias Queta starts at center with 10.0 points and 8.4 rebounds per game, but fellow big man Nikola Vucevic is also out tonight, typically playing a key bench role with 10.4 points and 7.2 boards himself.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs remain a force to be reckoned with at 47-17 on the campaign, winners of four straight and 9-1 since the All-Star break as well. With a NETRTG of +7.1, they’re third in the NBA in the stat and also 12th in pace. San Antonio’s two-way play is impressive, averaging 118.6 PPG with the sixth-best OFFRTG while allowing 111.5 PPG on the other end and posting the third-best DEFRTG. The Spurs average 27.3 assists with an excellent 2.015 AST/TO ratio, shooting 47.9% from the field and 35.6% from three-point range. In particular, that FG% ranks sixth in the NBA. They’re also tied with the Celtics for third in rebounding.
Superstar Victor Wembanyama’s 23.9 points, 11.1 rebounds and 3.0 blocks are all team-bests, with the big man leading the league in the latter category. De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle provide steady guard play with 18.9 PTS/6.3 AST and 16.4 PTS/6.9 AST each. Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson pitch in 14.2 and 13.0 PPG, and young talents Julian Champagnie and Dylan Harper also provide double-digit scoring. Harrison Barnes is the most notable omission on the injury report tonight as he’s out with an ankle issue.
Celtics vs. Spurs pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Spurs as -3.5 home favorites tonight with -155 odds on the Moneyline. The Celtics are listed at +130 on the ML with the game total set at 221.5 combined points.
This should be a super interesting matchup for a couple of reasons. For starters, there’s the angle of these teams being second in their respective conferences but dark horses to make a run to the NBA Finals. This is a measuring-stick contest given the talent level these rosters deploy, but beyond that, the integration of Tatum back into the pecking order in Boston also becomes a storyline to follow in both this game and the next few. His shooting splits of 37.5% overall and 29.4% from deep are rather poor, but expected after such a long hiatus from real game action. He’s played 27.0 MPG across his first two appearances of the season with 16.0 FGA/GM as well, so whether Jaylen Brown keeps working as the primary scorer or is supplanted as the team looks to get Tatum going could prove interesting as well.
Overall, both teams do most things well on the floor and match up fairly evenly, even if Wembanyama is a physical freak who towers above the Celtics’ frontcourt. I think that with these sides in good form and obviously playing up to par as potential contenders, they should lock up and display the elite defenses that make them such threats come postseason time. Boston has a 42-22 record on the under this season while San Antonio sits at 38-26 on the under as well. There’s a reason for that, so under 221.5 makes plenty of sense this evening.
Top pick: Under 221.5 (-115)
