We’re finally here, folks. It’s the Round of 16 in the Champions League knockout stages, and the cream is rising to the top. Atalanta prevailed in the round of 32 and got a date with German powerhouse Bayern Munich. This first leg will dictate the shape of the contest; who will prevail?
Bayern Munich are -165 favorites on the moneyline, while a draw is available at +370. Fancy an Atalanta upset? They are +370 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 3.5 goals. Let’s get into a prediction and a pick for Tuesday’s matchup.
Atalanta vs. Bayern Munich Prediction, Pick
Atalanta sure had to fight to get here. They battled through the league phase to reach the Round of 32. That gave them a tough test against Borussia Dortmund, one of Bayern’s rivals in the Bundesliga, and they were behind the eight ball from the jump. Dortmund won the first leg 2-0, putting the Italian side under a lot of pressure in the second leg. They responded with a comeback for the ages.
After racing out to a 3-0 lead, Dortmund tied the aggregate in the 75th minute. Then the drama truly kicked in, and a late penalty decided the tie with the last kick.
Now they’ll hazard their chances against another Bundesliga team. But Bayern is a different beast entirely.
Munich have lost only two matches all season long. One was a league match against Augsburg, and the other against Arsenal in Champions League group play. They have an elite defense and a high-powered attacking trio between Harry Kane, Michael Olise, and Luis Diaz. It’s a formula that puts Bayern squarely in the mix for a European title. But, first things first, they have to handle Atalanta.
Atalanta brings a strong defense to the table as well. Led by Giorgio Scalvini, they have a three-man centre-back system that works well. Starting goalkeeper Marco Carnesecchi can stand on his head in any given game. That gives them a great formula for stifling a team like Bayern.
I do expect the Atalanta defense to play a big role here. Their attack is solid, but not elite; they’ll be hard-pressed to solve this Bayern defense. Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer may not be sorely tested in this one. But the Atalanta defense will put on a capable show, keeping Bayern from running away with things and setting us up for a dramatic second leg.
