The Indian Wells Open is on to the Round of 16. One of the biggest matches of the day sees World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka take on World No. 16 Naomi Osaka. The match begins at 2:00. p.m. ET.
Sabalenka is -516 on the Moneyline, while Osaka is +396. This is my best bet to target on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Sabalenka vs. Osaka match.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka Preview
The current No. 1 woman in the world, Aryna Sabalenka, takes on former World No. 1 Naomi Osaka in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells. While these have been two of the biggest names in the sport over the past decade, they have only played each other once before. That meeting took place in the Round of 16 at the 2018 US Open. Both players were just 20 years old and rising the ranks in the sport. However, it was Osaka that came out victorious in that match. Not only did she defeat Sabalenka, but Osaka went on to win that US Open, her first career major victory.
Following that US Open, Osaka went on to win three more Grand Slams and become the No. 1 player in the world. Osaka then took some time away from the sport due to a combination of mental health struggles and a pregnancy. During that stretch, it was Aryna Sabalenka who rose and seized Osaka’s crown as the best player in the world. Sabalenka has now won four Grand Slams, matching Osaka’s career total. Aryna Sabalenka will now be looking for revenge for that loss from eight years ago in New York. She has done plenty to prove her greatness over the last few years, but she has still never beaten Naomi Osaka.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this match is for Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets. Sabalenka has dominated her first two matches of this tournament. She defeated Himeno Sakatsume 6-4, 6-2, then beat Jaqueline Cristian 6-4, 6-1. Of course, those two opponents were much weaker than Naomi Osaka. However, Osaka is still very unreliable with her health and consistency. Osaka announced her return to a high level by making the 2025 US Open semifinals. Yet, she has not done much since then.
Following the US Open semifinals, Osaka got bounced in her first match in the China Open and her second match in the Wuhan Open. Following that, she had to leave the Japan Women’s Open early with an injury. She then had to leave the Australian Open with an abdominal injury earlier this year as well. Osaka had not played since that injury at the Australian Open until Indian Wells. She did not look her best in the Round of 32, needing three sets to defeat Camila Osorio.
Last year, Naomi Osaka got knocked out of Indian Wells in the Round of 128. She has come a long way since then to get back to being competitive in big tournaments. However, Sabalenka is on an entirely different level. She has made the Indian Wells Final in two of the past three years but lost both finals. Sabalenka is incredibly determined to finally win this tournament and add another trophy to her cabinet. She has also not forgotten about that match in New York City eight years ago. The two players were both rising stars, but it was Osaka who went on to win the Grand Slam title. Aryna Sabalenka can finally assert herself as the superior player with a dominant win in this match.
