As we get into the dregs of March NBA basketball, the gap in motivations becomes clear. The Golden State Warriors are pushing their way to the Play-In Tournament, while the Utah Jazz collect as many lottery balls as they can. Who wins the battle between the injured playoff team and the team getting fined for intentionally losing? The answer is more complicated than you think.
Golden State is a 6.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Utah sits as a +235 ML underdog. The total is set at 223.5 points. Let’s get into a prediction and pick for this Monday matchup between the Warriors and Jazz.
Warriors vs. Jazz preview
The blows just keep coming for the Golden State Warriors. They’re just over a month removed from losing Jimmy Butler to a season-ending ACL injury. They’re also dealing with a complicated injury to Steph Curry, who missed the entire month of February while rehabbing a knee issue. Golden State’s latest acquisition, Kristaps Porzingis, has not stayed on the court consistently due to his mystery illness. That all has culminated in the preemptive end to their season.
Since Curry went down, Golden State has stumbled to a 5-8 record. An offense already struggling could not weather the absence of Butler and Curry. Jonathan Kuminga has his flaws, but he would have given them a decent floor prior to the trade that shipped him to Atlanta; now the Warriors have no floor on offense.
Yet the defense remains stout around Draymond Green. Alongside vets like Al Horford and De’Anthony Melton, alongside an emergent Gui Santos, they’ve managed to keep things afloat with stops and effort. It’s a decent enough formula to make them favorites against Utah.
The Jazz are finding ways to innovate when it comes to losing. Most of their starting lineup is dealing with injuries, but whether or not you believe those injuries are real is up to you. Since the All-Star break, Utah has lost seven of eight games with its only victory coming against a shameless tanking compatriot, the Washington Wizards. If the goal is to lose games, the Jazz are very good at their jobs.
But they still have some competency. Keyonte George has returned to the lineup, and Isaiah Collier has provided a good offensive floor. But they do have an illness going around the locker room that will force Collier to sit.
Both teams are depleted and playing less-than-ideal basketball relative to their talent levels. Who takes the cake here?
Warriors vs. Jazz pick, best bet
Defense is the question. Golden State is getting a lot of stops and will face an offense that has struggled. But can the Warriors generate enough offense, even against a bad Utah defense?
My gut says no. Even with the Jazz depleted and trying to lose, Golden State’s offensive ineptitude is something to marvel at. Utah is a value here, despite the injury report and incentive to drop this game for lottery purposes.
