Georgia Southern vs. Troy College Basketball prediction, preview
Georgia Southern has been on a magical ride through the Sun Belt Tournament. The Eagles are the 10-seed in the tournament, and have won five games in five days just to reach the championship game. They’ve obviously pulled off several upsets along the way, but I don’t think the Eagles have it in them again with a bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line.
As the top-seed in the Sun Belt, Troy didn’t have to play a game until Sunday, winning and covering against Southern Miss. The Trojans will be the significantly more fresh team, with Georgia Southern now onto play an absurd sixth game in as many days. What makes the Eagles’ run all the more head-scratching is that they are one of the worst defensive teams in the country — 311th in defensive efficiency on KenPom.
On top of that, Georgia Southern also plays at one of the fastest paces in the country. That’s a bad thing for a couple of reasons — the obvious one being that continuing to play at this pace everyday doesn’t seem sustainable. But the Eagles playing at a fast pace should also give a more rested Troy team more opportunities to attack a poor defense.
Troy went on the road during the regular season and won and covered as a 4.5-point favorite at Georgia Southern. Getting a similar price with a huge rest advantage on a neutral floor feels like a nice discount. With a trip to the NCAA Tournament on the line, I’ll take the better team to prevail. This isn’t a spot the Trojans will be overlooking the competition, like some of the Eagles’ opponents earlier in the week may have.
Troy wins with margin and goes dancing.
