We had a busy opening day for free agency. Billions of dollars were spent, dozens of players changed teams, and the fantasy football implications go far and wide. After four years with the Baltimore Ravens, Isaiah Likely is joining the New York Giants. What does this mean for his fantasy football outlook?
Right off the bat, that’s a lot of money. For a guy who has been the second-string tight end behind Mark Andrews for his entire career, jumping to the third-highest-paid deal among all TEs is wild. But it speaks to Likely’s talent.
But he has been a productive talent. Likely has over 1,500 receiving yards and 15 receiving touchdowns over those four years. He has consistently grown his average depth of target, becoming a situational deep threat who can work out of the slot and up the seams. The Giants are sure banking on his potential. But they have an inside man who can speak to his talent.
New Giants head coach John Harbaugh saw Likely hands-on, and had a hand in drafting him to the Ravens. Surely he knows as much about Likely as possible. But is this going to translate to fantasy football success?
Harbaugh has always prioritized tight ends. Before Mark Andrews, Dennis Pitta was soaking up targets. Todd Heap, Ben Watson, Ed Dickson, and Dallas Clark all had their times as focal points of the passing game. It only confirms what his free agency deal says: Likely is going to be an integral part of the offense.
The pass game hierarchy is important context here. When he returns from his ACL tear, Malik Nabers is sure to be the top passing game option. But everything after that is up for grabs. Wan’Dale Robinson has been soaking up targets in New York for years, but is on to Tennessee on a big-money deal. As the chain mover over the middle, Robinson’s role needs filling. Since no additional free agent receivers have come into the picture, this bodes well for Likely’s fantasy outlook.
But targets aren’t everything. The run game led by Cam Skattebo is going to be prominent, as the run game is for any Harbaugh team. Jaxson Dart is still developing as a passer, and it’s unclear how many quality fantasy football options he can maintain. Nabers will get his, but can Likely seize the No. 2 target role? And if so, will that be productive?
It’s important to know what makes a TE1 in fantasy football. In PPR scoring formats, the floor for a TE1 in 12-team leagues was 165 fantasy points. The 7-12 range came in between 165 and 185 points. So, if you want a starting-level tight end, that’s the range you have to hit at a minimum. And you can’t get production without volume.
All of the top 12 TEs last year got a minimum of 82 targets. The top six all got 100+ targets, which is a tough threshold to hit in the first year with a new team. But, to get into the TE1 range, we need Likely to get at least 80 targets. In a Harbaugh offense, that is not a big obstacle. The 2025 Ravens team dished out 123 targets to tight ends, which is a decline from 138 the year before. If Likely gets the lion’s share of that work, he can definitely hit the floor of required targets.
Theo Johnson, the incumbent TE1, has to factor in here. He has shown some stuff in his young career. But Harbaugh loves double tight end sets, and Likely isn’t known for his blocking. They’ll favor a blocker at the second spot, dampening Johnson’s target upside. It’s not crazy to think Likely can push 100+ targets in this offense, which makes him a rock-solid TE1.
But I’m not counting on outright stardom here. Trey McBride will have another monster year, Brock Bowers will bounce back, and Travis Kelce is always going to produce. The rookies from last season – Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, Oronde Gadsden II, and Harold Fannin Jr. – all finished in the top 15 and should grow next season. There are veteran holdovers like Kyle Pitts, Jake Ferguson, and Juwan Johnson that have clear TE1 paths. Point is, this is a crowded field.
The talent from Likely will speak for itself, and the target floor for back-end TE1 production will be met. But don’t draft Likely expecting top-six production; that’s a very steep ask. This Giants offense has some fleshing out to do.
