Helping to close down today’s loaded college basketball slate, the Pacific Tigers will face off with the Santa Clara Broncos. Pacific defeated Seattle last night to earn this opportunity, and this will be the 3rd vs. 6th seed in the West Coast Conference Tournament bracket.
This is the third matchup between these two teams this season. Santa Clara came out on top in both regular-season matchups. The Broncos defeated them 85-69 on January 14th and 71-56 on February 4th.
Looking at the odds for tonight, Santa Clara enters as a 9.5-point favorite and holds -500 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. Pacific holds +380 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 149.5.
Pacific vs. Santa Clara prediction, preview
Pacific went 17-14 this season with an 8-10 record in the WCC. Last night’s victory over Seattle in the WCC Tournament snapped a four-game losing streak, which came in a 61-58 win. On the season, the Tigers have gone 15-14 against the spread and have fallen under the game total in 17 of 29 qualifying matchups. They covered the 1.5-point spread, and the game total remained under the 129.5 game total in last night’s game.
Elias Ralph leads the team with 16.5 points and 6.8 assists per game, shooting 39.5% from beyond the arc. TJ Wainwright adds 13.2 points and 3.9 rebounds on 39.4% from three. Isaac Jack adds 9.4 points and 5.4 rebounds, while Justin Rochelin contributes 9.2 points and 6.2 rebounds. Jaden Clayton, Kajus Kublickas, and Jaion Pitt also play key roles in the rotation.
Pacific ranks 256th in the nation in scoring, 168th in offensive rating, 71st in field-goal percentage, and 57th in three-point percentage. On the other end, the Tigers sit 57th in opponent scoring, 104th in defensive rating, 83rd in opponent field-goal percentage, and 196th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Santa Clara Broncos finished the regular season with a 24-7 record and went 15-3 in conference play. They last played on February 28th, which was a victory over Oregon State, but closed the year losing two of their last four. On the season, Santa Clara has gone 17-13 against the spread across qualifying matchups, and the game total has gone over in 20 of these 30 games.
Christian Hammond leads the team in scoring with 15.9 points per game. He also adds 2.9 rebounds and 2.4 assists while shooting 39.5% from beyond the three-point arc. Elijah Mahi adds 14.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists, while Allen Graves is the lone other player to average in double figures with 11.5 points, along with a team-high 6.5 rebounds and shooting 40.8% on three-point attempts. Aleksandar Gavalyugov, Bukky Oboye, Brenton Knapper, and Jake Ensminger also play notable roles in the rotation.
Herb Sendek’s squad is scoring 83.8 points per game, which ranks 29th among D1 teams. The Broncos also rank 35th in offensive rating, 67th in field goal percentage, 171st in three-point percentage, and 25th in three-point attempts per game. Santa Clara is holding opponents to 72.4 points per game, which ranks 139th out of the 365 qualifying teams. The Broncos also rank 82nd in defensive rating, 237th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 117th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Pacific vs. Santa Clara pick, best bet
These teams are constructed very differently, with Santa Clara leaning on a high-scoring attack for their success while Pacific plays a defensive-minded brand of basketball. It was the high-powered offense of Santa Clara that won out in both regular-season matchups by a combined score of 156-125. The Broncos covered the spread in both games.
Turnovers have been the biggest issue for Pacific in each matchup. They turned the ball over 21 times in the first game, which Santa Clara was able to convert into 28 points. In the second matchup, they coughed up the ball 17 times, although Santa Clara was only able to generate 12 points off these. The Broncos only turned the ball over seven times in each game.
This is an issue that Pacific has faced all season, as they rank 324th in the country in turnovers per game this season. They are turning the ball over 13.2 times per contest. Forcing turnovers is not particularly consistent with Santa Clara’s profile as a team, but they have had success in this matchup, and this will be a priority on Sunday.
The pace at which this game is played will be a major factor in the result. Pacific is 12-0 when they hold opponents to 65 points or fewer on the season, but are 5-14 when teams score beyond this. Santa Clara has only been held below 65 points in three games this season, and is 3-0 in these matchups.
While Pacific played an impressive game last night to defeat Seattle, expect them to run out of gas tonight, and for Santa Clara to shine as the overall better team. It takes a very specific game script for Pacific to get victories, while Santa Clara have proven they can win in a variety of ways.
Expect this matchup to remain close in the early portion of the matchup before the Broncos begin pouring on points at a rate that the Tigers have no chance of matching. Expect turnover issues to show face once again, and for Santa Clara to push the scoring to a level Pacific has no chance of matching by the second half. They are 11-7 against the spread in conference games, 14-11 ATS as a favorite, and 2-0 against this Pacific team this year. Expect tired legs to be a factor for Pacific and for more of the same to occur tonight.
