Northern Iowa vs. UIC College Basketball prediction, preview
Arch Madness is certainly living up to its name in the Missouri Valley Conference. The tournament has been full of upsets, and now Sunday afternoon gives us a championship game between a couple of unlikely candidates. The 6-seed Northern Iowa Panthers will face the 5-seed Illinois Chicago Flames with a bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line.
Now, I’m sure if you’re looking to bet a MVC Tournament game, you are well aware of the under trend in this conference tournament. Essentially, unders have cashed in about two out of three games over a 10 year span, and the data is only stronger in recent seasons. That has created some depressed totals in this tournament, but games have still been cashing to the under.
But this is not a bet backing a trend, the under applies pretty well to the matchup. Northern Iowa is elite on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency. The Panthers also play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and are 362nd in adjusted tempo on KenPom.
On the other side of the matchup, the Flames play a pretty similar style. UIC ranks 59th in defensive efficiency, and 229th in adjusted tempo. Both teams also rank outside of the top-150 in offensive efficiency, so we have all the makings for a grinder here. Throw on top of it all that both teams will likely be playing through some nerves and pressure with an NCAA Tournament appearance on the line, and I think we see a very low scoring game in the Arch Madness finale.
