The Michigan State Wolverines have already locked up the Big Ten regular-season crown, but will be looking to finish the regular season on a high note as they face off with the Michigan State Spartans. This cross-state rivalry matchup always has plenty of intensity behind it, and this will especially be the case with both sides ranked in the Top 25 and intending on making some NCAA Tournament noise. These teams faced off once already this season. This resulted in an 83-71 victory by Michigan, which took place on January 30th.
Looking at the odds, Michigan enters as a 9.5-point favorite and holds -500 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. Michigan State holds +380 odds on the Moneyline, with the game total set at O/U 152.5 points.
Michigan State vs. Michigan prediction, preview
This season, Michigan State is ranked eighth in the AP Poll with a 25-5 record, and it has gone 15-4 in Big Ten Conference play. The Spartans enter this matchup on a five-game winning streak, with their five losses on the year coming against Duke (twice), Michigan, Minnesota, and Nebraska. They’ve gone 16-14 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 17 of 30 games.
Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the team with 15.3 points per game and leads the nation with 9.1 assists per game. Jaxon Kohler has averaged 12.5 points and 9.1 rebounds, while shooting 39.2% on three-point attempts. Coen Carr is also an important scoring threat, posting averages of 11.7 points and 5.2 rebounds, while Carson Cooper is the only other to average double figures with 10.4 points per game.
Michigan State has established an identity as a defensive-minded team. It has held its opponents to just 67.0 points per contest, which ranks 29th in the nation. The Spartans also rank 41st in defensive rating, 23rd in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 80th in opponents’ three-point percentage. Offensively, they are scoring 78.7 points per game, which ranks 113th in the nation, and they rank 51st in offensive rating, 62nd in field goal percentage, and 87th in three-point percentage.
Michigan is ranked third in the AP Poll with a 28-2 record this season. The Wolverines have gone 18-1 in Big Ten conference play, with their two losses on the year coming against Wisconsin and Duke. This season, they’ve gone 15-15 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 19 of 30 games.
UAB transfer Yaxel Lendeborg headlines the production with 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game. Morez Johnson Jr. adds 13.5 points and 7.4 rebounds, also leading the Big Ten with a 65.3% field goal percentage. Aday Mara adds 11.5 points and 6.9 rebounds, while leading the conference with 2.6 blocks per game, and UNC transfer Elliot Cadeau has averaged 10.1 points and 5.6 assists per game. Trey McKenney, L.J. Cason, and Nimari Burnett also play key roles in the rotation.
Dusty May’s squad is scoring 88.4 points per game, which ranks ninth in the nation. The Wolverines rank 10th in offensive rating, seventh in field-goal percentage, 61st in three-point percentage, and 16th in rebounds per game. On the other side of the ball, Michigan has held its opponents to 68.7 points per contest, which ranks 53rd in the nation. The Wolverines boast the nation’s eighth-best defensive rating, while ranking second in opponent field-goal percentage and 10th in opponent three-point efficiency.
Michigan State vs. Michigan pick, best bet
Both these teams have played their way into the upper echelon of college basketball conversation. Each looks to have a clear path to playing deep into the NCAA Tournament, with plenty of reasons for optimism for the quality of basketball they are putting forth.
Michigan secured the 83-71 win in the first meeting, covering the 2.5-point spread. It limited Michigan State to 4-for-23 (17%) on three-point attempts, and it led for 82% of the game. This matchup took place on Michigan State’s court, so it will be held at Michigan tonight. This is a rivalry that Michigan State has gotten the better of in history. Across the 50 times they have faced off, the Spartans have come out victorious in 33 of these matchups. If Michigan is able to get the win in this game, it would be the first regular-season sweep of the Spartans in nearly a decade.
While I can’t quite talk myself into an outright upset, I am backing Michigan State to keep this matchup competitive and ultimately cover the 9.5-point spread. This group has a resilient quality to them and have embraced Tom Izzo’s style of basketball to the fullest extent. Despite Michigan State falling behind in the early minutes, it outscored Michigan in the second half and held a lead with less than seven minutes left to play in a game that easily could have slipped into a blowout. The Spartans ran out of gas down the stretch, but if they had not dug as deep a hole for themselves, the results of this matchup could have been different.
I’d expect a better effort from the opening tip and for the Spartans to bring a focused effort on not falling behind early. Michigan State is capable of matching Michigan’s strong rebounding output, as it ranks 20th in rebounds per game and leads the league in opponents’ rebounds allowed. I’d count on a true rivalry spirit to be in the air. Three of Michigan State’s five losses have been by six points or fewer, and I am backing the Spartans to have enough of a spunk to keep this close throughout.
