The Big Ten regular season will conclude with a high-stakes matchup between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Nebraska Cornhuskers. There are some legitimate stakes for both teams, and these two have a spirited rivalry between them.
The two sides have already faced off once this season. Iowa produced a 57-52 win in the first game, which took place on Feb. 17th.
Looking at the odds, Nebraska enters as a 5.5-point favorite and holds -245 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. Iowa holds +200 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 136.5 points.
Let’s take a look at a preview and a prediction for this matchup.
Iowa at Nebraska prediction, preview
The Iowa Hawkeyes hold a 20-10 record on the season and have gone 10-9 in Big Ten Conference play. They enter this matchup coming off back-to-back losses to Michigan and Penn State and have dropped five of their last seven games. The Hawkeyes faced some stiff competition across this stretch, but this is not the way they were hoping to close out the season. On the season, Iowa has gone 18-12 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 16 of its 30 games played.
Bennett Stirtz is the Hawkeyes’ star, leading the Big Ten with 37.1 minutes per game, and he is posting averages of 20.5 points and 4.5 assists while shooting 38.6% on three-point attempts. Tavion Banks is the lone other player to average in double figures, with 10.4 points and 4.7 rebounds while shooting 42.4% on three-point attempts. Alvaro Folgueiras, Cooper Koch, Isaia Howard, Tate Sage and Kael Combs all also play a role in the rotation.
The Hawkeyes are averaging 75.4 points per game, which ranks 190th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. They rank 346th in field-goal attempts, but 27th in field-goal percentage. Iowa also ranks 116th in three-point percentage, 104th in assists and 16th in turnovers per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 65.2 points per game against the Hawkeyes, which ranks 12th in the country. Iowa also ranks 87th in defensive rating, 269th in opponent field-goal percentage and 178th in opponent three-point percentage. It also ranks second in opponent rebounds allowed.
Nebraska is 25-5 this season and has gone 14-5 in the Big Ten. It is coming off a loss to UCLA in its previous game, and its other four losses have come against Purdue, Illinois, Michigan and Iowa. On the season, it is 16-14 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 20 of its 30 games played.
Pryce Sandfort is the team’s leading scorer with 18.0 points while shooting 40.4% from deep and adding 4.8 rebounds per game. Rienk Mast pitches in 13.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game, while Braden Frager is the lone other player to average in double figures with 11.9 points and 4.1 rebounds per game. Jamarques Lawrence, Sam Hoiberg and Cale Jacobsen also play key roles in the rotation.
Fred Hoiberg’s squad is averaging 77.7 points per game, which ranks 138th among DI squads. The Cornhuskers rank 81st in offensive rating, 102nd in field-goal percentage, 109th in three-point percentage and attempt the 14th-most threes in college basketball. Opponents are scoring 65.7 points per game, which is the 15th-fewest in the country. Nebraska also ranks 18th in defensive rating, 18th in opponent field-goal percentage and 12th in opponent three-point percentage.
Iowa at Nebraska pick, best bet
Both of these teams are looking to bounce back from a loss in their previous game and finish the regular season on a high note. Each side also leans on its defensive identity for success and is more comfortable playing in low-scoring rock fights.
During the first matchup between these two teams, Iowa out-rebounded Nebraska 37-24, including generating 12 offensive rebounds. Both teams struggled to shoot the ball, with Nebraska shooting just 41% from the field and 21% on three-point attempts, while Iowa shot just 33% from the field and 26% from deep.
My lean is toward Iowa winning outright and picking up another victory over Nebraska. This feels like a matchup destined to come down to the wire, and I trust Bennett Stirtz to steer the team home. It felt like there was substance to the way it beat this Nebraska team up on the interior and dominated the boards.
However, I am backing the game total to remain under the 136.5-point line. The total finished at 109 in the first matchup between these two teams. Even with both teams struggling to shoot the ball in the matchup, each team has a defensive identity it will lean on once again. Iowa ranks 12th in the country in opponent points allowed, while Nebraska is 15th in this category. If each side is to allow their average, the game total would finish at 130.9.
Count on the matchup to carry a playoff-like atmosphere as the conference rivals close down the regular season. Both sides depend on their defense for success and are content playing at a slow pace throughout. Expect this game total to be too high given the context of this matchup and for both defenses to be the story of the game.
