The Illinois Fighting Illini and Maryland Terrapins will square off for the final matchup of the regular season during this Sunday’s slate.
This is the second matchup between these two Big Ten opponents this season. Illinois produced an 89-70 win in the first game, which took place on Jan. 21st. The two will now square off on Maryland’s home court as both teams look to put an exclamation point on their respective seasons.
Looking at the odds, Illinois enters as a 15.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Maryland holds +950 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 145.5 points.
Illinois at Maryland prediction, preview
The Illinois Fighting Illini hold a 23-7 record on the year and have gone 14-5 in Big Ten Conference play. They enter this matchup coming off a win over Oregon in the previous game, but they have lost four of their past seven games, with three of these losses coming in overtime. On the season, Illinois has gone 18-12 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 18 of its 30 games played.
Brad Underwood’s squad is scoring 84.5 points per game, which ranks 21st in the country. It also leads the country in offensive rating, ranks 130th in field-goal percentage and 133rd in three-point percentage while attempting the 10th-most perimeter shots. On the other end of the floor, teams are scoring 69.0 points per game against Illinois, which ranks 60th in the country. It also ranks 85th in defensive rating, 32nd in opponent field-goal percentage and 65th in opponent three-point percentage.
Keaton Wagler leads the team with 18.1 points per game, along with 5.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists while shooting 42.0% on three-point attempts. Andrej Stojakovic adds 13.5 points and 4.6 rebounds, while Kylan Boswell pitches in 13.4 and 4.1 rebounds of his own. David Mirkovic leads the team with 7.7 rebounds along with 12.9 points per game, while Tomislav Ivisic also averages in double figures with 10.3 points and 5.7 rebounds of his own. Zvonimir Ivisic, Ben Humrichous and Jake Davis also play key roles in the rotation.
The Maryland Terrapins enter with an 11-19 record on the year and have gone 4-15 in conference play. They enter this matchup on a three-game losing streak, having lost to Nebraska, Rutgers and Wisconsin, and they have dropped nine of their last 12 games. On the season, Maryland has gone 13-17 against the spread, and the game total has gone 16-14 to the over/under.
In Buzz Williams’ first year at the helm, Maryland is averaging 69.8 points per game, which ranks 315th out of the 365 D1 teams. The Terrapins also rank 305th in offensive rating, 355th in field-goal percentage and 301st in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 77.1 points per game against the Terrapins, which ranks 268th in the country. Maryland also ranks 336th in defensive rating, 315th in opponent field-goal percentage and 354th in opponent three-point percentage.
Pharrel Payne was the team’s leading scorer with 17.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, but he has not played since Dec. 13th due to a hip/leg injury. David Coit is next on the team with 13.6 points and 2.6 assists per game. Andre Mills adds 11.8 points and 4.1 rebounds of his own, while Darius Adams and Solomon Washington also each average in double-figures. Washington leads the team with 9.3 rebounds per game. Elijah Saunders and Isaiah Watts also play key roles in the rotation.
Illinois at Maryland pick, best bet
During the first matchup between these two teams, Illinois extended the lead to as many as 27. The Fighting Illini produced a 47-31 rebounding advantage, shot more efficiently from each area of the floor and ultimately secured an 89-70 win. They narrowly covered the 18.5-point spread, and the game total went over the 148.5 line.
The first matchup took place in Illinois, and tonight will give Maryland the home-court advantage. However, the Terrapins have gone just 6-8 against the spread at home this season, 9-12 as an underdog and 3-4 as a home underdog. In contrast, Illinois has gone 6-3 against the spread on the road this season and it is 15-9 when playing as a favorite.
Simply put, this is not a great Maryland team. Buzz Williams has some real work to do to return the program to the Sweet 16 standard that was set last year. It ranks 315th in points per game, 268th in opponent points allowed and slightly worse marks in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This is an Illinois team where the margin for error is slim, with it ranking in the top 60 in points per game and opponent points allowed. It also has the best offensive rating in college basketball, pulls in the 10th-most rebounds per game and launches the 10th-most perimeter three-point looks. These will all be problematic against a Maryland team that ranks 273rd in opponent three-point attempts, 354th in opponent three-point percentage and middling rebounding metrics.
Maryland has not quit on the year and has brought a respectable spirit on a night-to-night basis. But the reality is this is a gap in talent well beyond what the significant spread indicates. This is an Illinois team that looks like a National Championship threat when it plays to its peak, and a Maryland team that has no business being in the conversation of even being in the field of 68.
Expect the Fighting Illini to have too much talent on both sides of the ball and stretch this into a comfortable win. This is a great chance to end the regular season on a high note and count on them taking full advantage of this. Maryland was unable to instill any sort of legitimate fear into Illinois in the first game, and it has only gotten more clear the gap in talent between the two programs since. Look for Illinois to get out to a convincing lead and cover the 15.5-point spread on the road.
