With only 16 teams left in the FA Cup, the drama is going up and up. On a meteoric rise through English football, Wrexham are looking to pull a massive upset against Premier League powerhouse club Chelsea. Can the upstarts knock off the blue bloods?
Chelsea is a -245 ML favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Wrexham upset is priced at +550 odds, with the draw at +400. The over/under for this game is set at 3.5 goals. Let’s get into a prediction and a pick for this matchup.
Wrexham vs. Chelsea prediction, pick
For the longest time, Wrexham was a little-heralded fifth division side in English football. But their high-profile ownership and influx of cash have rocketed them into relevance; they’re looking to get promoted for a fourth consecutive season. That is unheard of. Beyond their league success, they’ve acquitted themselves well in this FA Cup. After knocking out Nottingham Forest on penalties, they pulled off a hard-fought 1-0 win over Ipswich to get here. Now they face their biggest test.
Chelsea comes in off a huge Premier League win over Aston Villa, significantly boosting their chances of playing Champions League football next year. After some lean years, the Blues are on the hunt for some hardware. As one of the strongest remaining sides in the FA Cup, they’re hoping this is a good shot at their first major trophy since 2021.
If Wrexham wants to pull the upset, they need to control the middle of the pitch. They favor a 3-4-2-1 alignment under Phil Parkinson, giving them four midfielders to win duels and tip the possession battle. Those touches will be key to supplying veteran striker Kieffer Moore and his two supporting midfielders, Nathan Broadhead and Oliver Rathbone. It’s a team that can be comfortable sitting deep and getting out on the counter, which will have to be the case against a superior Chelsea side.
They sure picked a dangerous time to face Chelsea. The Blues are in much better shape now that Liam Rosenior is in charge. In fact, they have lost only three times in their last 14 matches across all competitions. All three of those losses have come to Arsenal, the top side in the Premier League. Getting dog walked by your rivals doesn’t feel good, but it speaks to the quality of this club. With Cole Palmer back in the lineup, their attack has gelled well, with Joao Pedro providing all the necessary finishes.
Chelsea also has a great formula to negate Wrexham’s midfield quality. Enzo Fernandez and Moises Caicedo have played superb football in the center of the pitch, and will win more than enough duels to pull off the win. Even at nearly 2.5 to one odds, the value is on the Blues to win outright.
