Two NCAA Tournament-bound rivals are slated to face off this afternoon. Wisconsin (21-9, 13-6) comes into Saturday looking to make a statement. The Badgers, despite some impressive wins on their resume, are unranked in this week’s AP Poll. #15 Purdue (23-7, 13-6) is also searching for a momentum booster. The Boilermakers, despite massive preseason expectations, have been inconsistent during the regular season.
Purdue enters Saturday as 9.5-point favorites (-110) over Wisconsin. The total is set at 155.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for today’s game between the Badgers and the Boilermakers.
Wisconsin vs. Purdue prediction, preview
The Badgers are one of the Big Ten’s most star-studded squads. Three players make up the majority of their scoring. Guards Nick Boyd and John Blackwell form the Big Ten’s most prolific back court. Together, the duo have combined for 38.1 points, 8.5 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. Down low, 6’11” Nolan Winter has also made quite the impact. The center is averaging 13.3 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game. Unfortunately, Winter is expected to miss Saturday’s contest due to an ankle injury. Backup Austin Rapp (9.8 PPG, 3.8 REB) is in line for an expanded role.
If there’s one thing Wisconsin loves to do, it’s fire away from deep. The team ranks seventh in the nation with 51.5 three-point attempts per field goals attempted; they’re making 35.7% of those shots. Per KenPom, the Badgers wield a 124.0 adjusted offensive efficiency, good enough for 18th among all Division I schools. However, this group isn’t as strong on the other end of the floor. In spite of their size, Wisconsin’s inability to force turnovers has prevented it from becoming an elite defensive unit. That could prove costly on Saturday against Purdue’s experienced ball handlers.
Speaking of the Boilermakers, head coach Matt Painter has two of the sport’s best guards at his disposal. Braden Smith has already established himself as one of the greatest players in program history. This season, the senior has accounted for 14.7 points and 8.7 assists per game, the latter mark ranking second in the Big Ten. He’s joined by sharpshooter Fletcher Loyer, one of the conference’s true marksmen (40.7% 3PT). Inside the paint, Trey Kaufman-Renn remains an elite center. The big man has recorded 13.3 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists through 28 games played.
On paper, these two rivals operate in a similar fashion. The biggest difference is depth, where the Boilermakers have more weapons available off the bench. Purdue should be able to keep up with the Badgers from deep as well. The school is knocking down 38.3% of its three-pointers, 13th-best in college basketball. This is the second-best team on KenPom in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency (129.8). During the last meeting between these two squads in January, the Boilermakers earned an impressive 89-73 road victory.
Wisconsin vs. Purdue pick, best bet
In theory, Purdue’s biggest weakness is guarding the perimeter. The team has allowed opponents to take 45.2% of their shots from three-point range, 335th in college basketball. A sharpshooting Wisconsin squad should take full advantage. Unfortunately, the absence of Winter makes it harder to back the road team in this one. Going up against an elite center in Kaufman-Renn was already a challenge. Now, Badgers backup Rapp will be tasked with slowing down an All-American. Given the previous history between these squads, expect a commanding Boilermakers victory.
