The Tennessee State Tigers take on the Morehead State Eagles on Saturday night in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game. The game tips off at 9:00 p.m. ET in Evansville, Indiana.
The Tigers are listed as 5.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at O/U 143.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and pick for the Ohio Valley Conference title game.
Tennessee State vs. Morehead State prediction, preview
The Tennessee State Tigers and the Morehead State Eagles have been the best teams in the Ohio Valley Conference all season. The two of them tied for the regular-season title, both going 15-5 in conference play. Tennessee State is averaging 80.1 points per game, the best offensive team in the conference. The Tigers are led by the conference’s leading scorer, Aaron Nkrumah. They also have the conference’s third-highest scoring player, Travis Harper II. That guard duo is clearly the best in the conference and makes the Tigers so tough to beat. The Tigers have won eight of their past nine games coming into this title game and hope to win one more and get into the NCAA Tournament field. This would be Tennessee State’s first time in the NCAA Tournament since 1994.
Morehead State has been one of the best programs in the OVC over the years. It has made the conference title game in four of the past six years. The Eagles have won that title game and gotten into the NCAA Tournament field in two of their past three attempts. Several players on this team won the conference two years ago and got to the NCAA Tournament. That group includes senior guard George Marshall, who leads the team in scoring this season.
Tennessee State vs. Morehead State pick
My best bet for this game is on Tennessee State as 5.5-point favorites. These are two great teams, and they played two exciting games in the regular season. Tennessee State won the first matchup 105-100 in overtime in an absolute thriller. Morehead State won the second matchup at home in another high-scoring affair. Morehead State is not a good defensive team. It is allowing 74.2 points per game, the third-most in the conference.
Despite the two teams having the same record, Tennessee State has a +6.5 points per game differential, and Morehead State has a +1.3 points per game differential. Tennessee State also has the two best individual scorers in this game with its two elite guards. One glaring stat is that Morehead State has been the luckiest team in the country. According to KenPom’s luck ranking, Morehead State has been the single luckiest of the 365 Division I college basketball teams. That means its results have been vastly outperforming its actual performances on the floor. It could finally come back to bite the Eagles in this title game.
