The Seattle Redhawks will take on the Pacific Tigers Saturday night in a West Coast Conference Tournament matchup tipping off at 11:30 p.m. ET in Las Vegas.
Pacific holds the sixth seed for the WCC tournament, while Seattle sits seventh. The winner of will face Santa Clara on Sunday.
These teams first met on Jan. 24 at Pacific, where the Tigers pulled off a narrow 56-54 victory.
Pacific enters as a narrow 1.5-point home favorite with -115 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Seattle sits at -105 on the moneyline, and the game total is set at 129.5 points.
Seattle vs. Pacific prediction, preview
Seattle went 20-12 across the regular season with an 8-10 mark in WCC play. The program enters this matchup on a four-game winning streak, taking down Portland, Pepperdine, Loyola Marymount, and San Diego. The Redhawks are 13-17 against the spread and have fallen under the game total in 18 of 30 qualifying games.
Brayden Maldonado leads the Redhawks with 14.4 points per game, while shooting 36.8% from deep. Will Heimbrodt adds 12.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and a WCC-leading 2.5 blocks. Junseok Yeo also adds double figures, contributing 11.8 points and 3.9 rebounds per contest. Austin Maurer, John Christofilis, Houran Dan, and Maleek Arington also play notable roles in the rotation.
Chris Vector’s squad has established a defense-first identity, ranking 34th nationally in points allowed. The Redhawks also sit 17th in defensive rating, 52nd in opponent field-goal percentage, and 95th in opponent three-point percentage. On the offensive end, Seattle ranks 270th in scoring out of 365 qualifying D1 programs. It also ranks 299th in offensive rating, 243rd in field-goal percentage, and 257th in three-point percentage.
Pacific went 17-14 this season with an 8-10 record in the WCC. The program is looking to snap a four-game skid, which came at the hands of Saint Mary’s, Washington State, Gonzaga, and San Francisco. The Tigers are 15-14 against the spread and have fallen under the game total in 17 of 29 qualifying matchups.
Elias Ralph leads the team with 16.5 points and 6.8 assists per game, shooting 39.5% from beyond the arc. TJ Wainwright adds 13.2 points and 3.9 rebounds on 39.4% from three. Isaac Jack adds 9.4 points and 5.4 rebounds, while Justin Rochelin contributes 9.2 points and 6.2 rebounds. Jaden Clayton, Kajus Kublickas, and Jaion Pitt also play key roles in the rotation.
Pacific ranks 256th in the nation in scoring, 168th in offensive rating, 71st in field-goal percentage, and 57th in three-point percentage. On the other end, the Tigers sit 57th in opponent scoring, 104th in defensive rating, 83rd in opponent field-goal percentage, and 196th in opponent three-point percentage.
Seattle vs. Pacific pick, best bet
Pacific’s 56-54 victory in its first matchup with Seattle was not as close as the raw score suggests. The Tigers led the entire matchup and stretched their cushion to as much as 16 points. My lean is toward Pacific producing another win and covering the modest 1.5-point spread in the process.
However, I’m backing the game total to remain under 129.5 points. Albeit a low threshold for college basketball standards, it’s reasonable for this matchup. Each side plays at a crawling pace and has been limited on the offensive end. Seattle ranks 182nd nationally in possessions per matchup, while Pacific sits 300th. Neither team cracks the top 250 in points per game, competing behind consistently strong defense.
Pacific and Seattle combined for just 110 points in their first matchup, despite the Redhawks shooting 40% from deep and the Tigers outperforming their season field-goal percentage. Expect points to remain at a premium in a conference tournament setting with even more spirit on the defensive end.
Pacific has fallen below the game total in seven of its last 10 games, and the under has cashed in both the program’s games at a neutral site. Seattle fell below the game total in its previous conference tournament game, in 13 of its 19 conference matchups, and in two of its three games played at neutral sites.
Don’t blink at the low number — and buckle up for some old-school, defensive-minded basketball.
