The PGA TOUR heads into another exciting weekend at a Signature Event with Saturday’s Round 3 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. After the cut at the end of the day on Friday, the remaining golfers will try to track down Daniel Berger, who leads by five strokes after back-to-back strong rounds at the difficult course. Let’s take a look at what could happen in Round 3 and pick out some Arnold Palmer Invitational best bets for Round 3.
The par 72 course at Bay Hill has played slightly over par for the week, playing tougher on Friday (+0.36) than on Thursday (-0.19). The toughest stretches are holes seven through nine on the front side and holes 17 and 18 on the back nine. The four Par 5 holes are the best scoring opportunities for the field, although all the water in play keeps them from being easy.
Florida weather is always a bit unpredictable and the afternoon could be a little cloudier than we’ve seen so far at Bay Hill. The wind looks calm overall, though, which should produce similar scoring to what we’ve seen in the first two rounds.
The earliest Round 3 tee times were at 9:20 a.m. ET, as the field will continue to play in pairs off of just the first tee, as they have all week. Even after the round is underway, though, there are a wide variety of markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dive into my three favorite picks for Round 3 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Rory McIlroy o4.5 Birdies or Better – Round 3 (-120)
Update: McIlroy has withdrawn from the Arnold Palmer Invitational prior to the third round due to a back injury.
Rory tees off at 12:55 p.m. ET and will play alongside Ryan Fox as both players look to charge up the leaderboard from T-9, where they start the day.
Round 1 was shaky for McIlroy, who finished at even par before going lower with a -4 on Friday. He made five birdies in Round 1 but gave all those strokes back with three bogeys and a double-bogey. In Round 2, he cleaned up most of those mistakes with just one bogey and five more birdies.
Since he has gone over this prop in each round and is in good form, Rory should be good for another good day on moving day at Bay Hill. While many are looking for a charge from Scottie Scheffler further back in the pack, Rory is well-positioned for a run of his own. He posted a T-14 and a T-2 in the two Signature Events on the West Coast and has six top-10 finishes at Bay Hill, including a win and a runner-up finish.
Rickie Fowler u71.5 Round Score – Round 3 (-124)
Rickie has gotten off to a great start at Bay Hill with back-to-back rounds of 69 (-3) to start the week. He begins the day alone in sixth place and will tee off with Collin Morikawa at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Fowler made three birdies in a bogey-free Round 1, and he continued that momentum with four birdies and just one bogey in Round 2. He has been quietly playing well this season with three top-20 finishes in his four events on the West Coast swing and under this prop line in 13 of his 16 rounds (although many were played in much easier scoring conditions).
At Bay Hill in his career, Fowler has four top-25 finishes in 13 appearances. He finished third in 2013, but he hasn’t returned to the top-10 at this event since then. He can go a long way to making that happen by coming in under this prop on Saturday.
Round 3 – 18 Hole Matchup (3-Way): Russell Henley over Cameron Young (+108)
For the third play in my Arnold Palmer Invitational best bets for Round 3, let’s dive into the head-to-head matchups again for a “three-way” play that scores a tie as a loss rather than a push. Using that format, Henley comes at plus-money odds to have a better round on Saturday than Cameron Young.
Henley is the defending champ at this event and will tee off at 1:20 alongside Xander Schauffele, while Young tees off a few groups ahead at 12:45 p.m. ET. Henley missed the cut at The Genesis Invitational in his previous event before this week, but before that he had posted three top-20 finishes to start his season.
He’s been in good form this week with a 70-69 start to the week after dropping six birdies on Friday while also making three bogeys. He starts the day one stroke ahead of Young, who went low with a 67 on Thursday but struggled a bit on Friday with a 73. In that second round, Young still made four birdies but picked up five bogeys, including back-to-back bogeys to finish the day.
Coming into the event, Young was riding high after a T-7 at The Genesis Invitational, but he wasn’t in top form at the WM Phoenix Open (T-41) or the AT&T Pebble Beach (T-55) before his strong week at Riviera.
Both players have shown the potential to go low or struggle in their recent rounds, but in the volatile matchup, I’m taking the defending champ to outscore Young, whose struggles down the stretch in Round 2 could linger into Saturday.
