College basketball has stepped to the center stage of the sports world, with the NCAA Tournament now right around the corner. As regular seasons wind down and conference tournaments kick off, full tournament seedings are beginning to be established. Tipping off at 8:00 p.m. ET tonight, the UCF Knights will face off with the West Virginia Mountaineers as both sides look to add to their case.
This is the second matchup between these two sides this season. West Virginia picked up a 74-67 victory in the first game, which took place on February 14. Less than a month later, they will square off again.
Looking at the odds for tonight, West Virginia enters as a 3.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook and holds -170 odds of winning outright. UCF holds +142 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 139.5.
UCF vs. West Virginia preview
The UCF Knights hold a 20-9 record on the season and have gone 9-8 in conference play. They enter this matchup coming off back-to-back losses to Oklahoma State and Baylor, and have dropped five of their past eight games. On the season, UCF has gone 14-15 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 16 of the 29 games played.
Riley Kugel headlines the production, posting averages of 14.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, while shooting 38.9% on three-point attempts. Themus Fulks is not far behind, adding 14.4 points, 6.9 assists, and 3.0 rebounds, while shooting 41.9% from the perimeter. Jordan Burks is posting averages of 13.2 points and 4.6 rebounds, while Jamichael Stillwell is the lone other player to average double figures with 11.9 points, 2.2 assists, and a team-high 7.9 rebounds per game. Chris Johnson, John Bol, and Devan Cambridge also play key roles in the rotation.
As a team, UCF is scoring 82.9 points per game, which ranks 45th in the country. Johnny Dawkins’ squad also ranks 62nd in offensive rating, 45th in field goal percentage, and 17th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 78.9 points per game against the Knights, which ranks 314th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. They also rank 283rd in defensive rating, 277th in opponent field goal percentage, and 187th in opponent three-point percentage.
The West Virginia Mountaineers enter with a 17-13 overall record, and have gone 8-9 in Big 12 play. They are looking to bounce back from a 65-63 loss to Kansas State in the previous game and have dropped four of their past five games. On the season, the Mountaineers have gone 14-16 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 20 of their 30 matchups.
Honor Huff is the team’s leading scorer with 15.5 points and is shooting 35.7% on 9.5 three-point attempts per game. Brenen Lorient adds 11.6 points and 5.0 rebounds per game, while Chance Moore is the lone other player to average double figures with 10.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Treysen Eaglestaff pitches in 9.7 points and 4.8 rebounds, while Jasper Floyd, DJ Thomas, and Harlan Obioha also play key roles in the rotation.
The Mountaineers lean on a defensive-minded style of play for success. Offensively, they are averaging 69.6 points per game, which ranks 317th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. West Virginia also ranks 226th in offensive rating, 242nd in field goal percentage, and 240th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring the ninth-fewest points per game at 64.7 on average. West Virginia also ranks 46th in defensive rating, 49th in opponent field goal percentage, and 291st in opponent three-point percentage.
UCF vs. West Virginia pick, best bet
These teams hold entirely different identities. UCF is dependent on scoring at a high rate to produce victories, ranking 45th in points per game and 314th in opponents points allowed. West Virginia drags opponents into defensive slugfests for its pathway to success, ranking 317th in points per game but ninth in points allowed.
In the first matchup between these two teams, West Virginia produced a 74-67 win. UCF led for 62% of the matchup, stretching a lead to as large as 14, but West Virginia outscored UCF 36-15 over the final 11:27 of game action to get the result. The 67 points that UCF was held to marked its third-lowest scoring output of the season.
The first matchup between these two teams took place on UCF’s home court, and tonight will travel to the Hope Coliseum in Morgantown, West Virginia. The Mountaineers have gone 9-8 against the spread this season as the home team and are 10-8 against the spread when playing on equal rest, as is the case tonight. UCF has been respectable on the road this season, going 5-4 against the spread in these matchups, but is 6-10 ATS when playing on equal rest.
UCF came out with a strong scoring punch during the first matchup between these two teams, but West Virginia’s defensive impact became increasingly clear as the matchup progressed. Now, with the home crowd behind them, expect this effort to be further ratcheted up for the Mountaineers. The results have not shown in the win column, but over their past five games, the Mountaineers have limited Kansas State to 65 points, BYU to 71 points, TCU to 60 points, and Utah to 61 points. Oklahoma State put up 91 points against WVU, but it took overtime for this to be the case.
UCF has only held opponents below 70 points in five games this season and has allowed 80+ points in 14 games. Expect West Virginia’s defense to assert itself and for UCF’s vulnerabilities defensively to provide a path to a Mountaineers win. Count on defense winning out in this matchup and for West Virginia to play with a higher level of toughness on the glass throughout to pave the way to picking up another victory over UCF, covering the 3.5-point spread in the process.
