Puerto Rico is hosting Pool A play at Hiram Bithorn Stadium, so it’ll have a huge home field advantage, even though its officially the road team as it takes on Colombia in the first matchup for both teams in the World Baseball Classic.
First pitch is set for 6:00 p.m. ET on FS1 in what should be a raucous environment with tons of hype. PR is a pretty heavy favorite, at -320 on the moneyline, while Columbia is +245 to pull of the upset. Puerto Rico doesn’t have quite as many stars in the mix as it has had in the past, but it still has a strong lineup to back Seth Lugo as he starts against Jose Quintana of Colombia.
The rest of this pool includes Canada, Panama and Cuba and should be a very competitive group. Which of these two teams will emerge victorious in this spicy showdown and jump to the top of Pool A? Let’s break down the odds and lines for both sides on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Puerto Rico vs. Colombia prediction, preview
Puerto Rico has an awesome history in the World Baseball Classic, finishing as runner-up in 2013 and 2017. In 2017, it was undefeated before losing 8-0 to Team USA in the championship. This year’s squad is a little thinned out since Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor were not cleared for insurance reasons and Javier Baez was suspended.
The lineup still has some very recognizable names in the mix with Nolan Arenado, Willi Castro, Heliot Ramos, Eddie Rosario and Christian Vazquez giving the team a solid core. Arenado will be switching teams for the WBC, after helping Team USA win the title in 2017. He starred for Team USA in 2023, as well, going 10-for-26 (.385) with four extra-base hits and five RBI.
Puerto Rico also has a solid and experienced starting pitcher in Seth Lugo, whose paternal grandfather, Jose “Ben” Lugo, was born in Puerto Rico. Lugo was a key part of PR’s successful run in 2017 and went 8-7 with a 4.15 ERA and 5.09 FIP last year. He was even better in 2024, when he led the majors with 33 starts and finished third in the AL Cy Young voting with a 3.00 ERA, 16 wins and a 3.25 FIP in his first year with the Royals. Lugo has pitched five innings in Spring Training with five strikeouts and two runs allowed.
On Friday night, Lugo will be opposed by veteran lefty Jose Quintana, who spent last year with the Brewers before joining the Rockies this offseason. He was a solid 11-7 in his 24 starts last season, posting a 3.96 ERA and 4.81 FIP despite a low 6.08 K/9 rate. Quintana isn’t a dominant option, for sure, but he has turned into the kind of “crafty” veteran who can help fill an MLB team’s rotation.
Quintana is the team’s captain and the winningest Colombian-born pitcher in MLB history. He missed the 2023 WBC due to injury, but his team pulled off a big upset of Mexico to start that tournament, putting itself in great position to advance. However, Colombia lost the rest of its games and had to go back to the qualifiers to return to group play this season.
The lineup backing Quintana isn’t full of big names, with Michael Arroyo probably the team’s best hitter. Arroyo is a 21-year-old prospect in the Mariners’ system, who MLB Pipeline ranks as the No. 67 overall prospect in baseball. Baseball fans will also recognize Donavan Solano, Gio Urshela, Jorge Alfaro and Harold Ramirez, but the lineup isn’t nearly as deep as Puerto Rico’s.
Puerto Rico vs. Colombia pick, best bet
Since Puerto Rico is at home and such a heavy favorite, it’s very hard to pick against them, even if you get the runs with Colombia. With the major absences from the PR lineup and Colombia’s underwhelming offense, rather than picking on the outcome, I feel much better about taking the under on the run total.
Lugo and Quintana have enough experience to be effective early, and neither offense seems likely to go off for a big number.
