Tipping off as part of Friday’s seven-game NBA slate, the New York Knicks will visit the Denver Nuggets.
This is the second of two meetings between Denver and New York this season. At Madison Square Garden on Feb. 4, the Knicks edged out a 134–127 win in double-overtime.
The Knicks enter as narrow 1.5-point favorites for the rematch on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Nuggets sit as a +105 underdog. The game total is set at 230.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview and prediction for the Friday night matchup.
Knicks vs. Nuggets Preview
The Knicks sit third in the Eastern Conference with a 40-23 record. They head into Friday night reeling from a tough 103–100 loss to the Thunder on Wednesday, though they’ve won five of their last seven games. New York is 35–29 against the spread and has fallen under the total in 34 of 64 games.
Jalen Brunson leads the team with 26.5 points and 6.3 assists per game. Karl-Anthony Towns adds 19.7 points and a team-high 11.8 rebounds, while Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby each produce at the wing positions. Josh Hart contributes 11.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 5.2 assists, but he’s listed as questionable. Mitchell Robinson, Mohamed Diawara, and Jose Alvarado all play key roles in the rotation, while Miles McBride remains sidelined after core muscle surgery.
The Knicks own the NBA’s third-best offensive rating, ranking 10th in scoring, 12th in field-goal percentage, fifth in three-point percentage, and 23rd in pace. Defensively, New York sits sixth in defensive rating, fifth in points allowed, seventh in opponent field-goal percentage, and 15th in opponent three-point accuracy.
The Nuggets have slipped to fifth in the West with a 39–24 record this season. They’re coming off back-to-back wins over the Lakers and Jazz, but have dropped eight of their last 14 games. Denver is 35–28 against the spread and has cleared the game total in an NBA-leading 39 games.
Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic leads the Nuggets with 28.6 points, while pacing the NBA with 12.6 rebounds and 10.4 assists per game. Jamal Murray is fresh off his first career All-Star nod, averaging 25.7 points, 7.3 assists, and 4.4 rebounds, while shooting a career-high 43.2% from deep. Aaron Gordon, sidelined since Jan. 23 with a hamstring issue, is targeting a return for Friday’s contest, but Peyton Watson remains out of action. Cam Johnson and Spencer Jones each missed Thursday’s matchup with the Lakers, and their statuses are worth monitoring before tipoff. Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, and Jonas Valanciunas each play key roles in the rotation.
The Nuggets lead the league in offensive rating, scoring, and three-point percentage, rank second in field-goal percentage, and are 22nd in pace. On the other end, Denver ranks 21st in defensive rating, 19th in points allowed, 13th in opponent field-goal percentage, and ninth in opponent three-point percentage.
Knicks vs. Nuggets Prediction, Best Bet
The Knicks have a rest advantage, given that the Nuggets will be suiting up for the second night of a back-to-back. New York is 7–6 against the spread when playing on a rest advantage this season, though it’s 12–18 ATS on the road and 22–22 ATS as a favorite.
These teams put up an entertaining double-overtime battle in their first matchup, in which New York outscored 15–8 in the final OT to secure a 134–127 victory.
I am backing Denver to settle the score in the rematch. Getting Aaron Gordon back should provide a major boost to the lineup, with the high-flyer being an integral part of the offense. Denver has hemorrhaged points without him, and his impact should be evident upon his return.
Expect the sharpshooting Nuggets to have more success from the perimeter in this matchup, facing a Knicks team that ranks 23rd in opponent three-point attempts and 15th in opponent three-point accuracy. Denver went just 13-for-50 (26%) from deep in the first matchup, their fourth-worst performance from deep this season. Count on a return to form with Jokic drawing multiple defenders and locating shooters beyond the arc.
The Knicks are a solid team that has recaptured its identity following a midseason slip. But the Nuggets are inching toward full health for the first time in months. The home team has covered the spread in five of the last six meetings between Denver and New York, and the Nuggets have won all six matchups against the Knicks following a home win. Expect Denver — which boasts one of the top home advantages in sports — to build on its last two wins with a replenished lineup.
