Sometimes, there are losses that feel like moral victories. For the Los Angeles Lakers, last night’s 120-113 defeat against the Denver Nuggets might qualify, as the Lakers lost starting center Deandre Ayton early and trailed by 10 points for much of the evening before eventually coming back to cut the deficit to one in the final minutes. But Los Angeles lost, and now it has to hope for a bounce-back.
The Lakers will now play in the second night of a back-to-back, with their game against the Indiana Pacers set to begin at 10:40 p.m. ET. It’ll be the first of a five-game home-stand, with three of the five games coming against Eastern Conference opposition.
Los Angeles will be without Ayton, Maxi Kleber (back), and LeBron James (elbow/foot), after James fell on his elbow late in the game. Even with their most significant injury crisis since before the All-Star break, the Lakers’ injury list is shorter than Indiana’s: Johnny Furphy (ACL) and Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) are out for the season, Ivica Zubac (ankle) is yet to make his team debut, and Andrew Nembhard (back/neck), Aaron Nesmith (ankle/back), and Pascal Siakam (wrist) are all probable.
Los Angeles is an 8.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-355 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 235.5. The Pacers are +280 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the evening’s final contest and offer a prediction.
Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers preview, prediction
Indiana expects to jump right back into contention next season once Haliburton makes his return from his injury, but for now, the goal is to lose, as it owes its first-round pick to the LA Clippers if it falls between fifth and ninth. It has done just that; the Pacers started off the season just 1-13, added a 13-game losing streak between December 12 and January 6 for good measure, and have not won since before the All-Star break. Even with the brutal record, there have been some bright spots for Indiana, as Siakam made his fourth All-Star appearance and Jay Huff has been a serviceable center who can provide 20 solid backup minutes per game next season behind Zubac.
The Lakers are holding onto a top-six spot in the Western Conference despite some game-to-game inconsistency, as they haven’t put together either a four-game winning streak or four-game losing streak since the start of December but are 22-21 overall across that span. But with a fully healthy squad moving forward, Los Angeles should feel confident about its ability to present a challenge in the playoffs, even if it’ll likely be an underdog in its first-round series. Luka Dončić has hit 39.5% of his three-pointers since the start of 2026, and as long as he can keep that accuracy up, he should be a threat for a 30-point triple-double on a nightly basis. Austin Reaves has been a little more inconsistent since returning from a calf strain on February 3, but he’s still one of the best third options in basketball.
Pacers at Lakers pick, best bet
Even without James, the Lakers should have enough firepower to beat Indiana fairly comfortably. This season, Los Angeles has been slightly worse with The King on the floor, posting a plus-1.1 net rating with him on the bench and a plus-0.2 mark with him on the court. Lineups featuring Dončić and Reaves (plus-6.0 net rating) have been much more effective than lineups featuring Dončić and James (negative-2.4), and despite a slightly higher assist and block percentage with James on the floor than without him, he hasn’t had a meaningful impact. Los Angeles has also been some 5.4 points per 100 possessions better with Ayton on the bench.
Indiana is a dream matchup for the Lakers. Los Angeles has struggled to get downhill this season, averaging a below-average number of restricted-area tries per game, but they’ve made up for it by finishing at the league’s highest rate, and while James and Ayton have both been elite inside, Hayes, Reaves, Dončić, and LaRavia have also finished at rates north of 70%. The Pacers, on the other hand, have allowed the second-most shots per game at the rim since the All-Star break, as well as the highest percentage. They’ve also been even worse than the Lakers have at getting to the rim and have been far less efficient, deeming them unable to take advantage of Los Angeles’ biggest weakness. The Lakers’ rim protection might be even worse than normal without Ayton, a marginally better interior defender than Jaxson Hayes, but Indiana isn’t well-suited to make them pay regardless.
Los Angeles should also be able to dominate the glass, even without James or Ayton, neither of whom has made a significant impact on the team’s presence on the glass. The Lakers haven’t been an elite rebounding team, ranking 12th overall, seventh in defensive rebounding percentage, and 24th in offensive rebounding percentage, but they’ve certainly been better than the Pacers, who rank second-to-last in that stat and have won the rebounding battle just 16 times all season. Despite its turnover issues, Los Angeles is also the better transition team overall, and it has one of the league’s best foul margins, while Indiana has one of its worst.
The Pacers could keep the game competitive if they manage to close out well on the Lakers’ shooters. That’s the one thing that Indiana has done well defensively this season, as it has actually given up the second-fewest wide-open three-pointers per game. The Pacers have given up even fewer uncontested triples than Los Angeles, which has also been excellent at challenging shots from the perimeter. Indiana is also better at generating wide-open looks of its own. But the Pacers don’t have the shooters that the Lakers do; Rui Hachimura, Dončić, and Reaves all rank among the league’s top 30 in three-point percentage over expectation this season, while Nembhard is the only qualified Indiana player to hit his threes at a rate higher than expected.
It’s possible that the Pacers could make life difficult enough for Los Angeles’ shooters that they could pull off the upset, but Los Angeles is too clinical inside not to take advantage of Indiana’s porous defense and rebounding. The Lakers looked sharp offensively last night in the loss to the Nuggets, and the Pacers’ offense isn’t exactly Denver’s. Plus, home-court advantage is a net swing of 7.6 points per 100 possessions in Los Angeles’ favor.
