The PGA TOUR began its third Signature Event of the season on Thursday with Daniel Berger sprinting out to a three-stroke lead at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 72-player limited field will take on Bay Hill Club & Lodge once again on Friday, before the cut reduces the field to the top 50 and ties, along with any player within 10 strokes of the lead.
In Round 1, the course played slightly under par with an average of -0.19. Coming into the day, it looks like the cut is likely to fall between +1 and +3, depending on how the course plays in Round 2. While Florida weather is unpredictable, it looks fairly calm overall, although the wind will be a little stronger than on Thursday.
The first tee times of the day were at 8:10 a.m. ET, and the field will play in pairs off the first tee throughout the day. Let’s take a look a the wide variety of markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook and pinpoint some Arnold Palmer Invitational best bets for Round 2.
Daniel Berger o3.5 Birdies or Better – Round 2 (-110)
Berger took Bay Hill by storm in Round 1, with three birdies on the front nine, three straight right after the turn, and three in his last five holes to close out the round. It was the lowest opening-round score at Bay Hill since Adam Scott posted a -10 back in 2014.
While he isn’t likely to match his nine-under round, he only has to have four birdies or better to deliver on this prop. Berger has had a long road back from injury, but he has had success at this track in the past. He finished T13 in 2015 and T15 last year.
Last year, he opened with an ugly 78 (only 15 strokes different than this year), but he had six birdies or better in Round 2, four birdies or better in Round 3, and six birdies or better in Round 4. He had a solid T32 last week at the Cognizant Classic, but his game seems to be an even better fit at Bay Hill, where his accuracy with his long irons gives him plenty of birdie chances.
It may be too soon to call it a comeback after just one round, but Berger’s return to the top of the leaderboard is one of the most compelling stories to watch heading into the weekend.
Morikawa/Rose – Total Number of Birdies or Better Round 2: o8.5 (+102)
Collin Morikawa is another player who has dialed his irons back in and looks ready to take on Bay Hill on Friday. He starts the day three strokes behind Berger, tied for second place after dropping eight birdies or better in Round 1, but also making three bogeys. He only made seven pars on the day and finished eagle-birdie-birdie to vault up the leaderboard.
His playing partner at 1:10 p.m. ET is Justin Rose, who finished the day T17 after one bogey and three birdies on Thursday. Rose has a long history at Bay Hill, with six career top 10 finishes, including a runner-up in 2013. He finished T8 last year, while Morikawa finished runner-up behind Russell Henley.
Each of these veterans has already picked up a win on the PGA TOUR this season and has a good course history at Bay Hill. Morikawa almost got enough birdies or better to go over this prop on his own on Thursday, so even if the wind and pin positions are a little tougher, I’m confident these major champions can find at least nine par-breakers in their 36 combined holes on Friday.
Round 2 – 18 Hole Matchup (3-Way): Xander Schauffele over Russell Henley (-104)
For the third play in my Arnold Palmer Ivitational best bets for Round 2, let’s dive into the head-to-head matchups with a “3-way” play that scores a tie as a loss rather than a push. However, I think Schauffele will have a better round than Henley, and it moves this prop to almost even money.
Schauffle tees off at 1:20 p.m. ET, while Henley is one group behind him at 1:30 p.m. ET. Schauffele started the week with a -4 in Round 1, making four birdies and avoiding any bogeys, while Henley also made four birdies but finished with a -2 since he had a pair of bogeys.
While Schauffele won this prop in Round 1, the reason I like him in this prop has more to do with his form coming into the week. Henley was struggling and missed the cut at The Genesis Invitational, while Schauffele finished T7.
Henley is the defending champ at this event, so he’s definitely a formidable opponent for Schauffele, but since Xander has been in better form and had the stronger Round 1, I’m backing Schauffele to have a better day on Friday.
