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2026 NFL Free Agency Predictions: Where will Malik Willis sign?

2026 NFL Free Agency Predictions: Where will Malik Willis sign?

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By: Dan Johnson

Malik Willis quietly rebuilt his rookie-hype value during two seasons in Green Bay, producing elite efficiency in limited opportunities behind Jordan Love. Across his appearances with the Packers, Willis completed 70 of 89 passes (78%) for 972 yards and six touchdowns without an interception, adding 261 rushing yards and three scores on the ground. Those numbers came in just 11 games, but the explosiveness jumped off the tapeโ€”10.9 yards per attempt, a 134.6 passer rating, and the kind of dual-threat athleticism teams now design entire offenses around.

In a thin quarterback market, that upside matters. Several franchises enter the offseason with unsettled quarterback rooms, and analysts around the league have already identified a cluster of teamsโ€”the Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns, Jets, Steelers, and Vikingsโ€”as potential suitors. Some are rebuilding. Others are searching for a bridge starter. All are navigating the same reality: there simply are not enough viable quarterbacks available.

That scarcity is why Willis has suddenly become one of the most fascinating free-agent storylines of the offseason. He is only 26 years old, possesses elite rushing ability for the position, and just produced the most efficient stretch of his professional career in a modern play-action system.

Start with Willisโ€™ production in Green Bay. Across 11 appearances during the 2024 and 2025 seasons, Willis completed 70 of 89 passes (78.6%) for 972 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions, producing a 134.6 passer rating while averaging 10.9 yards per attempt. These numbers came in a relatively small sample, but the efficiency stands out. Among quarterbacks with at least fifty attempts during that stretch, his completion percentage and yards-per-attempt figures ranked among the best in the league.

One late-season stretch in 2025 showcased exactly why teams are intrigued by his upside. In that run, Willis completed 30 of 35 passes (85.7%) for 422 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 123 yards and two scores. The combination of elite efficiency through the air and explosive rushing production is precisely the profile modern offensive systems try to maximize.

Here are the teams that make the most sense, by my measure, for Willis.


Where will Malik Willis sign in NFL free agency?

Miami Dolphins

Miami is frequently projected as the most logical landing spot for Malik Willis, and the statistical environment makes the connection easier to understand once you examine both the offensive structure and the financial reality of the roster.

Miamiโ€™s offensive structure could amplify Willis’ skill set. The Dolphins have historically built their attack around a heavy run game and aggressive play-action concepts, averaging 126.5 rushing yards per game, a top-ten figure league-wide. That type of system naturally incorporates quarterback movement, bootlegs, and misdirectionโ€”schematic elements that align with Willisโ€™ athletic strengths as both a scrambler and a designed-run threat.

The quarterback situation in Miami also introduces significant statistical and financial volatility. Tua Tagovailoa signed a four-year, $212.4 million extension, including $167 million guaranteed, a deal that now carries a projected $56.3 million cap hit in 2026. Releasing him outright would create roughly $99.2 million in dead money, potentially the largest dead-cap charge in league history.

That financial strain has already forced Miami to begin restructuring the roster. The team released several high-salary veterans, including wide receiver Tyreek Hill and linebacker Bradley Chubb, moves that shifted the Dolphins from roughly $17 million over the salary cap to about $13 million under entering the offseason. These types of cuts are usually early indicators that a franchise is entering a broader roster transition.

At the same time, Tagovailoaโ€™s on-field production has been inconsistent enough to create legitimate uncertainty about the long-term quarterback plan. In 2025 he threw for 2,660 yards with 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, eventually losing his starting job late in the season. Miami finished 7-10 and missed the playoffs, triggering organizational changes that included a new head coach and general manager.

All of that context makes Willis an intriguing option from a roster-building perspective. His rookie contract carried only about a $1.4 million cap hit in 2025, and even a moderate free-agent contract would likely fall well below the cost of most starting quarterbacks. For a team navigating one of the largest quarterback cap commitments in the league while simultaneously attempting to regain financial flexibility, that type of low-risk, high-upside experiment becomes extremely attractive.

Add in the coaching familiarity between Miamiโ€™s new leadership group and the Green Bay offensive system where Willis developed, and the Dolphins start to look like one of the cleanest schematic and financial fits available. In a league where quarterback mobility is increasingly valuable and financial flexibility matters more than ever, Willis could represent the type of calculated gamble Miami is willing to make as it reshapes the roster for the next competitive window.

Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is another team repeatedly mentioned in quarterback speculation, largely because the franchise appears to be entering a structural reset at the position. Recent reporting indicates the Cardinals are expected to move on from Kyler Murray after seven seasons, a move that would close the book on a tenure that included 87 starts, more than 20,000 passing yards, and 121 touchdowns, but only one playoff appearance and a 38-48-1 record as a starter.

From a statistical standpoint, the Cardinalsโ€™ offense has struggled to find consistent efficiency in recent seasons. In 2025 the team averaged 20.9 points per game (23rd in the NFL) while allowing 28.7 points per game, finishing near the bottom of the league in overall performance with a 3-14 record. Advanced models paint a similar picture. Arizonaโ€™s offense produced roughly -0.02 expected points added per play, a neutral-to-slightly negative efficiency profile that placed the unit in the leagueโ€™s middle tier.

That environment can make a mobile quarterback especially valuable. When Arizonaโ€™s offense did generate explosive plays, they often came through quarterback movement and scramble production rather than traditional drop-back efficiency. Willisโ€™ skill set fits that template. In limited action with Green Bay he produced a 134.6 passer rating with 972 passing yards and six touchdowns in just 11 appearances, while adding significant rushing production as a dual-threat quarterback.

Financially, the Cardinals also have reason to consider a lower-risk quarterback option. Moving on from Murray could involve a massive cap decision, as the team would have to navigate tens of millions in guaranteed money tied to his contract. In that context, a mid-tier contract for Willisโ€”potentially in the $8โ€“15 million annual range depending on the marketโ€”would represent a relatively inexpensive bridge option while Arizona searches for a long-term franchise quarterback through the draft.

For a team beginning a roster reset, that type of quarterback gamble often makes strategic sense. Willisโ€™ athletic upside would give Arizona a quarterback capable of generating offense outside structure while the franchise rebuilds the rest of the roster around him.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers represent the wildcard candidate in the Malik Willis sweepstakes, but the entire scenario begins with the uncertain future of Aaron Rodgers. Pittsburgh signed Rodgers to a one-year, $13.65 million deal before the 2025 season, and the four-time MVP delivered a productive campaignโ€”throwing for 3,322 yards with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions while leading the Steelers to the AFC North title and a playoff appearance.

Despite that success, Rodgers has not committed to playing in 2026. The veteran quarterback entered the offseason as a free agent and has publicly said there is no deadline on his decision about returning or retiring, leaving Pittsburgh without clarity at the most important position on the roster.

That uncertainty is the only reason Willis has entered the conversation. If Rodgers returns for another season, the Steelers likely stick with the veteran. But if he walks awayโ€”or if negotiations stallโ€”the franchise suddenly has to pivot quickly to another option.

Statistically, the Steelersโ€™ offense in 2025 was respectable but not dominant. Pittsburgh scored 397 points (23.4 per game) and generated roughly 5.2 yards per play across more than 1,100 offensive snaps, numbers that placed the unit almost exactly in the middle of the NFL offensively. The team relied heavily on a run-game foundation and play-action passing rather than vertical passing volume.

That type of offensive structure actually mirrors the system where Willis has shown his best efficiency. During his time in Green Bay, Willis completed 70 of 89 passes (78.6%) for 972 yards and six touchdowns without an interception, producing a 134.6 passer rating in limited action. Those numbers came largely through play-action concepts and movement throwsโ€”schematic features that align closely with Pittsburghโ€™s offensive identity.

Willis would also add a dimension the Steelersโ€™ offense has rarely had since Roethlisbergerโ€™s prime: quarterback mobility. In his appearances with Green Bay he added 261 rushing yards, showing the ability to extend plays outside structure and generate explosive gains with his legs when protection breaks down.

From a roster-building standpoint, that athletic profile becomes intriguing if Rodgers departs. Pittsburgh has historically fielded strong defenses and productive rushing attacks, meaning the offense does not necessarily require a high-volume pocket passer to function. In that environment, a mobile quarterback who can generate efficient play-action production and extend drives becomes a viable developmental gamble.

In other words, Willis is not the Steelersโ€™ Plan A. That role still belongs to Rodgers. But if the veteran ultimately decides not to return for another season, Pittsburgh could quickly find itself exploring younger optionsโ€”and thatโ€™s where Willis enters the picture.

Prediction

Despite all the Arizona heat, the cleanest projection still points to Miami. The Dolphins have the strongest combination of offensive fit, leadership familiarity with the Green Bay system where Willis developed, and a roster that may be entering a financial reset at quarterback. Miamiโ€™s offense already leans heavily on the run game and play-action concepts that helped Willis produce elite efficiency in limited action with the Packers, where he completed 78.6% of his passes for 972 yards and six touchdowns with zero interceptions while averaging 10.9 yards per attempt. On the market, projections for Willisโ€™ contract vary widelyโ€”from roughly $10.6 million annually in conservative valuations to deals approaching two years and $40 million with $30 million guaranteedโ€”but the most plausible outcome sits somewhere in the middle.

All told, I say Willis signs with the Miami Dolphins on a two-year contract worth roughly $28โ€“32 million, structured with team flexibility after the first season as a bridge-starter gamble with upside.

That projection doesnโ€™t eliminate the other contenders, though, because the underlying conditions that make Miami appealing also exist elsewhere. Arizona could enter the race aggressively if the franchise follows through on plans to move on from Kyler Murray, which would free significant cap flexibility and leave the Cardinals searching for a transitional quarterback while they rebuild. Pittsburgh also remains a legitimate suitor thanks to cap flexibility and a run-heavy offensive structure that historically fits mobile quarterbacks. Meanwhile, Cleveland and several other quarterback-needy teams could still drive the price upward if the market for bridge starters tightens in a thin free-agent quarterback class. In other words, Miami may have the clearest path to signing Willisโ€”but the combination of upside, positional scarcity, and a volatile quarterback market means the Dolphins will likely have real competition until the deal is done.

NFL free agency begins at the start of the new league year on March 11.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.