On January 7, the Trae Young era with the Atlanta Hawks officially came to an end when the Hawks traded him for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert. Tonight, the Young era with the Washington Wizards will officially begin.
After a careful recovery from quad and MCL strains, Young is expected to be available to make his Washington debut tonight when the Wizards host the Utah Jazz at 7 p.m. ET.
Although Young will be available, several members of both teams won’t. For the Jazz, Keyonte George (ankle) and Lauri Markkanen (hip) are both out in addition to Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee), Jusuf Nurkić (nose), Walker Kessler (shoulder), and Vince Williams Jr. (knee), who are done for the season. For the Wizards, newly-acquired Anthony Davis (hand), Kyshawn George (elbow), Alex Sarr (hamstring), Tristan Vukevic (thigh), Jamir Watkins (ankle), and Cam Whitmore (deep vein thrombosis).
Washington is a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-175 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 242.5. Utah is +145 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down Young’s team debut and offer a prediction.
Utah Jazz at Washington Wizards preview, prediction
Utah got aggressive at the trade deadline, shipping out four players and three first-round picks for Jackson, a former Defensive Player of the Year. But after three games (two wins), the Jazz opted to shut Jackson down for the season so he could undergo surgery on a benign growth in his knee. Since then, Utah is 0-7, though games against the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday and the Philadelphia 76ers last night were both close, thanks to 36- and 30-point efforts from George. With George absent, fifth overall pick Ace Bailey could be the primary scoring option.
The Wizards, too, are on a significant losing streak, having dropped each of the past six games, and Sarr, their supposed franchise center of the future, hasn’t played since February 8. Washington did have one fairly impressive win over the East-leading Detroit Pistons on February 5, but both of its victories since came against an Indiana Pacers team resting several starters. Its young core has struggled as of late; Tre Johnson has posted just 39-22-85 shooting splits since the All-Star break, and Bub Carrington (35-36-50) has been even worse. Instead, the Wizards have gotten big minutes from relatively untested players these past couple of games, with Leaky Black and Julian Reese each playing two games this week.
Jazz at Wizards pick, best bet
Young should immediately raise the ceiling of Washington’s offense, even though he’ll likely be on a minutes restriction. Even in his poor 281-minute stint with Atlanta earlier this season, the team still posted a 121.1 offensive rating with him on the floor, which would be the league’s best mark across the full season and is 11.8 points per 100 possessions better than what the Wizards have posted since the All-Star break. His defense is a problem — when he was on the floor for the Hawks earlier this season, they gave up 129.8 points per 100 possessions — but that might not be so bad against a Jazz team missing both of its top offensive options (Markkanen and George) and its defensive anchors (Jackson and Nurkić).
Neither of these teams are built to stop the other. After the All-Star break, Washington has given up the sixth-most shot attempts in the restricted area and allowed the seventh-highest percentage, and it’s not like Young — one of the league’s worst perimeter defenders — will be able to do much to help that. Thankfully for the Wizards, that might not matter against Utah, which has gotten downhill at the eighth-lowest rate across that span despite Markkanen playing one game and George playing three. The Jazz are also the league’s worst rim-protecting team, and Washington has been one of the league’s best driving teams, something that should only improve with Young back on the court.
Both of these teams are almost equally bad on the boards; since the All-Star break, the Wizards rank 29th in total rebounding percentage and Utah 27th. Young won’t help with that; Atlanta rebounded at a rate 5.5 percentage points higher with him off the floor this season. He probably will help with the fact that the Wizards rank seventh-to-last in points off of turnovers and fourth-to-last in opponent points off of turnovers, so they should have an advantage over the Jazz in transition in the end. Utah has a better foul differential, but that’s another area in which Young excels; his career average of 7.6 free-throw attempts per game ranks 25th in NBA history.
Both of these teams have allowed pretty easy shots; since the All-Star break, the Jazz have given up the second-most wide-open threes and Washington the fifth-most, but Utah has gotten unluckier in that opponents have connected on them at the league’s third-highest clip across that span. The Jazz have also generated 3.2 more wide-open three-point tries per game than the Wizards have since the All-Star break, but Young’s gravity might cut into that deficit some. Washington has shot the ball significantly better than Utah has over that span, and with all three of the Jazz’s qualified shooters who have hit their threes at a higher rate than expected absent, that might be sustainable.
Young will certainly be on a minutes restriction, but the Wizards should have an above-average offense in the minutes he plays, and that might just be enough against Utah’s cellar-dwelling defense. The Jazz’s defense has collapsed even further without Markkanen and Nurkić on the floor.
