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Toronto Raptors at Minnesota Timberwolves prediction, pick for Thursday 3/5/26

Toronto Raptors at Minnesota Timberwolves prediction, pick for Thursday 3/5/26

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By: Garion Thorne

There’s a couple of teams who are generating buzz across the league with their recent play, yet I don’t feel like Minnesota is among that grouping. It isn’t getting enough credit. Though it hasn’t been the most difficult stretch of the team’s schedule, the Timberwolves have won seven of their past eight contests, moving past the Nuggets for the four seed in the Western Conference. Minnesota is also now breathing down the neck of Houston for the three spot.

Conversely, the Raptors are clinging to the five seed in the East, having lost three of their past four. More importantly, Toronto is searching for a quality win, as the squad has consistently struggled with elite competition in 2025-26. Look no further than Tuesday’s loss to the Knicks as a glaring example of this worrisome trend. The Raptors were held to a mere 13 points in the fourth quarter, unable to keep pace with New York when the screws tightened. Toronto is now 0-8 this season against the top three teams in their conference. Woof.

Can the Raptors finally beat a championship contender? Or will the Timberwolves keep rolling? Let’s preview this tilt with the help of some of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Raptors at Timberwolves prediction, preview

If you’re searching for a perfect microcosm of these two teams, their matchup back on February 4 in Toronto could serve as the example. The Raptors owned a 13-point halftime lead, along with a 10-point lead heading into the fourth quarter, yet the Timberwolves dominated the final 12 minutes on their way to a 128-126 victory. Anthony Edwards was absolutely electric in that one. Despite missing all four of his three-point attempts — and come clutch free throws that could’ve iced the tilt sooner — the former first-overall pick finished with 13 points, five rebounds and three steals in just 7.1 minutes of action. In the simplest terms, Edwards showed why he’s an alpha, a No. 1 scoring option for a squad that has made the Western Conference Finals each of the past two seasons.

The Raptors don’t have a guy like that. Scottie Barnes has taken his game to another level in 2025-26, yet a majority of that growth has been as an elite defender. In fact, the All-Star hasn’t scored 20 points in a contest since February 8, and he’s shooting a paltry 14.3% (8-for-56) from beyond the arc since the beginning of the new year. Barnes has been allowed to focus much of his energy on the defensive end thanks to the presence of Brandon Ingram, who has taken on the role of Toronto’s lead scorer and sole isolation creator in the half-court. However, Ingram has managed only 3.8 points per game in fourth quarters, shooting 42.3% from the field. It’s an issue that truly plagues the Raptors’ whole roster. Toronto produces 108.2 points per 100 possessions in the fourth, which ranks 27th in the NBA. The team’s 28.7% three-point shooting rate in the quarter is also by far the worst in the league.

Specific to this evening’s matchup, while these two teams share a +3.2 net rating across their past 10 contests, it seems like the edge has to go to Minnesota. The Raptors have been one of the best road squads in the NBA this season, yet they’ve also lost their last seven games against opponents with a record above .500. The Timberwolves can claim a clean IR, as well, whereas Toronto has listed the aforementioned Ingram as questionable due to a thumb issue. If Ingram can not go, he’d join Collin Murray-Boyles (thumb) as key rotation pieces in street clothes.

Raptors at Timberwolves pick, best bet

Best Bet: Timberwolves -5.5 (-115)

Toronto’s dropped it’s last seven games versus opponents with a winning record, and it might be without it’s leading scorer on Thursday evening. That feels like quite the uphill battle against a red-hot Timberwolves team that employs Anthony Edwards.

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.