Few teams in the nation are playing as well as South Florida (21-8, 13-3). The Bulls have reeled off 13 wins over their last 15 games, looking to earn an NCAA Tournament berth. Before that happens, they’ll need to take care of business against some American Athletic Conference rivals. It’s been a brutal season for Memphis (12-17, 7-9). Still, Penny Hardaway’s crew isn’t lacking in talent. The Tigers will be eager to pull off a major upset at home.
USF enters Thursday as 6.5-point favorites (-110) over Memphis. The total is set at 161.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for this evening’s game between the Bulls and the Tigers.
USF vs. Memphis prediction, preview
It’s been over a decade since the Bulls went dancing. As things stand right now, they look capable of breaking that streak. Granted, there’s a long way to go between now and Selection Sunday. Still, the AAC leaders have firmly cemented themselves as a team to watch over the coming weeks. It helps that this group is among the most exciting teams in all of college basketball. USF is putting up 88.3 points per game, tenth-most in the nation. A 71.4 adjusted tempo, 16th-quickest on KenPom, has wreaked havoc on opposing defenses.
Due to their breakneck speed, the Bulls have managed to deliver some impressive counting stats. Each member of this starting lineup is averaging at least ten points per game. That includes Izaiyah Nelson, the favorite to win AAC Player of the Year. Through 29 games, the center has accounted for 16.2 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 1.4 blocks. Even more impressive, he leads the conference with a 56.8% field goal percentage. In the back court, Wes Enis (15.9 PPG) and Joseph Pinion (14.4 PPG) can take over on any given night.
Surprisingly, South Florida doesn’t take many shots from beyond the arc. Instead, this group has found a way to extend possessions on the glass. The Bulls own a 38.0% offensive rebounding rate, tenth-best in college basketball. In comparison, Memphis is giving up 37.2 rebounds per game to opponents, tied for 319th among all 365 Division I schools.
What a fall from grace for the Tigers, a #5 seed during last season’s NCAA Tournament. If Murphy’s Law was a team, it would be this school. Memphis has plummeted to 129th on KenPom with a +3.36 net rating. Unlike in years past, this offense has been downright brutal to watch. UM is averaging only 74.2 points per game, 232nd in college basketball. To make matters worse, the Tigers have a 103.7 offensive rating, third-worst in the AAC.
Memphis rosters just two players averaging more than ten points per game. Leading scorer Dug McDaniel is a name to look out for tonight. He’s currently averaging 13.9 points, 3.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists. Fellow senior Sincere Parker (12.0 PPG) has also been effective. While there’s a decent amount of depth on this squad, but a lack of top-end talent hurts. It’s been much better on the other end of the floor, where the Tigers own a 103.1 adjusted defensive efficiency (103.1).
USF vs. Memphis pick, best bet
When these rivals last met in February, the Bulls dominated en route to an 87-66 victory. Even on the road, it’s tough to imagine a major slip-up for South Florida tonight. On the other side, Memphis has lost six straight contests. A Tigers squad with its eyes set on the offseason might struggle to keep pace this evening.
