The only team in Pool C of the 2026 World Baseball Classic yet to take the field? The hosts and defending champions, of course.
For the first time since Game 7 of the World Series, baseball fans will get to see Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto play in a non-exhibition setting. I, for one, can not wait. So much so, that I will be waking up in the wee hours of the morning to watch Japan’s tilt with Chinese Taipei, which will get underway Friday morning at 5:00 a.m. ET. Set your alarms!
Can the Japanese start their title defense with an easy win? Let’s preview this WBC tilt with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Japan vs. Chinese Taipei prediction, preview
If there is a red flag on Japan’s roster in 2026, it’s their starting rotation. There’s no Yu Darvish. There’s no Roki Sasaki. There’s no Shohei Ohtani — at least in his pitcher form. It’ll certainly be something to keep an eye on as Japan works its way through the knockout stage of the tournament, where matchups with Venezuela, the Dominican Republic and the USA likely await. However, in the meantime, there should be little concern in pool play, especially when Yoshinobu Yamamoto is toeing the rubber.
The lone holdover from a stacked rotation in 2023, Yamamoto has since made a name for himself in North America. Across two seasons and 48 starts with the Dodgers, the RHP owns a 2.66 ERA, which is the fifth-lowest mark in MLB among pitchers with at least 250 innings thrown. The only guys with a better mark in that same time span? Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler. There’s a case to be made that Yamamoto is the best non-American starting pitcher walking the Earth at the moment, though the DR’s Cristopher Sanchez could also stake a claim. As mentioned above, the last time most of the world saw Yamamoto was in the World Series, where the 27-year-old closed out Game 7 after throwing six innings the day before in Game 6. All told, Yamamoto tossed 17.2 innings in the Fall Classic, giving up only two earned runs. Los Angeles was just 1-3 in contests where Yamamoto did not take the mound.
Then there’s Japan’s lineup. You can quibble with this team’s ability defend — Seiya Suzuki in centerfield seems like a disaster waiting to happen — but an error here or there likely won’t matter much in the early stages of the WBC. Ohtani posted a 100th percentile expected slugging rate in 2025 (.649). He will be joined by fellow MLB bats in Suzuki, Masataka Yoshida, Kazuma Okamoto and Munetaka Murakami. There’s also a host of NPB All-Stars like Kensuke Kondo, a man who slashed .346/.500/.615 in the last World Baseball Classic. Japan is going to put runs on the board with ease.
That should all be a pretty major issue for Chinese Taipei. Remember, once considered a dark horse to emerge as the second seed out of Pool C, Chinese Taipei was shutout 3-0 in its opening contest against Australia, being held to only three hits. It’s not like the Aussies were blessed with an amazing array of pitchers, either. Alex Wells started that game for Australia and did not throw a pitch faster than 87.8 mph. Something tells me these bats will somehow have more trouble with Yamamoto. Chinese Taipei also already used its ace, Jo-Hsi Hsu. Hao-Chun Cheng was once heralded enough where he signed a $200,000 contract with the Dodgers in 2019, yet he’ll be hard pressed to keep this potent Japanese lineup at bay.
Japan vs. Chinese Taipei pick, best bet
Best Bet: Japan -4.5 (-115)
Basically, how much do you trust Japan to score five runs? Yamamoto might only last four innings in this game, but I assume they will be near-perfect, which should give Japan’s bats more than enough time to get out to a comfortable lead. In the 2023 World Baseball Classic, Japan outscored its opponents 38-8 in pool play, never winning a game by fewer than six runs. I’ll assume history repeats itself.
