The Sun Belt tournament rolls on this evening, with a Round 3 matchup on tap. James Madison (18-14, 9-9) will be looking to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons. Awaiting the Dukes on Thursday will be Southern Mississippi (16-15, 9-9). The Golden Eagles earned a 73-65 victory when these teams last met on January 31st.
James Madison enters tonight as 1.5-point favorites (-102) over Southern Miss. The total is set at 141.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Thursday’s game between the Dukes and Golden Eagles.
James Madison vs. Southern Miss prediction, preview
Unlike his predecessor, Mark Byington, current James Madison head coach Preston Spradlin prefers a deliberate, slowed down approach on offense. The Dukes have posted a 65.7 adjusted tempo, 266th out of 365 Division I schools on KenPom. However, their adjusted defensive efficiency of 112.9 is only good enough for 247th in the nation. An inability to force turnovers has been a major weakness for JMU.
With that being said, there are a few things to like about the Dukes this season. For starters, they possess two of the Sun Belt’s most talented players in Cliff Davis and Justin McBride. Together, the duo has combined for 31.2 points and 8.7 rebounds per game. In the back court, guard Bradley Douglas has also chipped in (11.9 PPG, 3.6 AST). Unfortunately, there isn’t much depth on this roster. James Madison has just six players averaging more than 3.6 points per game. However, Spradlin is quite conservative when one of his starters gets into foul trouble. Two-foul participation measures how often a coach leaves in someone that’s picked up a pair of first-half fouls. JMU’s 3.2% mark is the eighth-lowest in all of college basketball.
On the flip side, Southern Miss wields a bit more depth than their opponents, albeit not by much. The Golden Eagles have nine different players logging at least ten minutes per game. The headliner is leading scorer Tylik Weeks. Through 30 games this season, the forward is putting up 18.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists while shooting 47% from the field. He’s joined by guard Isaac Tavares, a two-way menace. The junior has accounted for 14.9 points, 6.8 rebounds and a Sun Belt-leading 2.3 steals per game. He was not on the court when these squads faced off in January.
If there’s a weakness on offense for Southern Mississippi, it’s a lack of floor spacing. As a team, the school is knocking down just 29.1% of its three-point attempts, 13th-worst in the nation. However, it’s not as if the Golden Eagles take many shots from beyond the arc. Against a slightly smaller James Madison crew, there should be plenty of drives to the rim in this one.
James Madison vs. Southern Mississippi pick, best bet
This is a fairly even matchup between two middling Sun Belt foes. However, given their previous history, I have to give a slight edge to the Golden Eagles. After all, Southern Miss pulled out a win without Tavares, its second-best player. Any lack of three-point shooting is counteracted by James Madison’s mediocre, slow-paced offense. In what could be an intense affair, I’m leaning towards the underdogs.
