The 31-30 Warriors will host the 38-22 Rockets tonight at 7:30 PM EST. These two teams have a long rivalry, and this season they have only played each other once, with the Rockets winning by four points in a narrow victory.
The Rockets are 8.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 212.5 points.
Warriors vs. Rockets prediction, preview
Houston’s identity starts with how physical they can be on both ends of the ball. If Alperen Sengun plays through the illness tag, he’s the hub that lets the Rockets win without playing fast. He gets the job done through post facilitation, short roll passing, and pressuring the rim to draw in defenders. If he’s limited or out tonight, Houston tends to lean more into guard creation and straight-line pressure, which makes Amen Thompson’s availability a big deal. Offensively, Thompson gives them rim pressure and a monstrous transition threat without needing a ton of set plays; defensively he’s capable of switching onto anyone and clamping up with no problems. Jabari Smith Jr. being questionable matters too: he’s the floor spacing big who keeps lanes open for drives and also gives them a longer, more versatile defensive front that can survive small-ball lineups. He’s also quite effective at switching onto different types of assignments defensively. In their other matchup this season, Smith Jr. put up 15 points on 36.4% shooting. The injury report has Şengün, Thompson, and Smith all questionable, with VanVleet and Steven Adams out.
Golden State will be without Curry tonight, and with Curry out, they lose a ton of offense. Curry’s presence provides gravity that few (perhaps none) in the league can match. They’ll also be without Jimmy Butler for the rest of the season. Kristaps Porzingis is also Questionable, and the Warriors without these two will flatten into tougher self-created jumpers. Moses Moody will be out as well, which also removes some of the Warriors’ offensive options. This season, the Warriors are 14th in OFFRTG and 11th in DEFRTG. They’re solidly in play-in territory as they await for Curry’s return.
Warriors vs. Rockets pick, best bet
Best Bet: HOU Rockets -9.5 (-112)
The Rockets won narrowly in their first matchup, but in that game Jimmy Butler led the offense for the Warriors with 21 points while Steph Curry struggled with 14 points. Tonight, neither of them will be active, and I’m pessimistic about Golden State’s ability to generate enough offense without their top two options against an elite defensive team in the Rockets, who hold a 111.7 DEFRTG (5th in NBA).
