The Nuggets are hosting the Lakers on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Denver is favored by 5.5 points and this game carries a total of 240.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for the game.
Nuggets vs. Lakers Preview
The Nuggets have surprisingly been volatile since Nikola Jokic returned from his knee injury in late January with a 6-8 record. Denver has been able to beat inferior opponents during this time, but the club has struggled against quality opponents, losing to the Thunder twice and the Knicks, Pistons, Cavaliers and Timberwolves all once.
The Nuggets need Aaron Gordon (out, hamstring) back desperately, as the veteran has been awesome on both ends of the floor this season. Cameron Johnson (questionable, ankle) being beat up also doesn’t help. Still, centerpieces Jokic and Jamal Murray are healthy and Denver is used to playing without key pieces, so the club should get out of this slump soon.
For the season, the Nuggets sit fifth in the Western Conference at 38-24 and rank seventh in net rating. The team leads the league in offensive rating, but ranks 22nd in defensive rating. Denver has faced the Lakers once this season and lost that game 115-107, but Jokic missed that game, so the club is obviously in a much better position to win tonight. With the three-time MVP on the floor this season, the Nuggets own an outstanding 11.4 net rating.
The Lakers are just a half game behind the Nuggets in the standings, but Los Angeles ranks far worse in net rating at 17th. The Lakers have won three straight, but the opponents during this win streak haven’t been very notable, defeating the Stephen Curry-less Warriors, the Kings and the Pelicans.
Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves are all healthy right now, but the team’s net rating is just +1.6 with this trio on the floor this season. Los Angeles is a strong offensive team, ranking top-10 in both offensive rating and field goal percentage, but the club struggles to defend, ranking 22nd in defensive rating. The Nuggets are a similar type of team, so this matchup could be a shootout.
Nuggets vs. Lakers Pick, Best Bet
While the Nuggets have been up-and-down recently, they are still the better team over the Lakers and Denver should get a win tonight on its home floor. This season, Los Angeles is an ugly 8-15 when competing as an underdog.
The Nuggets -5.5 is a fine bet, but I am more inclined to back this game to go over its total, even at this high 240.5 points. As strong offensive, but weak defensive teams, Denver and Los Angeles rank first and sixth, respectively, for the over this season.
