A late-night showdown between rivals is on tap in South Bend. Stanford (18-11, 7-9) comes into town in desperate need of a win to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive. As for Notre Dame (13-16, 4-12), a solid end to the season might salvage an otherwise disappointing campaign.
Stanford enters Wednesday as 1.5-point favorites (-105) over Notre Dame. The total is set at 146.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for this evening’s game between the Cardinal and the Fighting Irish.
Stanford vs. Notre Dame prediction, preview
Inconsistency is the defining trait of Stanford’s season so far. The Cardinal have had moments of greatness. Look no further than wins over Louisville, #25 Saint Louis, and #17 North Carolina. However, they’ve recorded a mediocre 7-6 combined record against Quad 2 and 3 opponents. Making sense of this team on any given night can feel like a fool’s errand.
The good Stanford showed up on Saturday, delivering an impressive 95-75 home victory over SMU. Now, the school will hope to keep that momentum going during a crucial two-game road trip. Advanced metrics aren’t too kind for the Cardinal, currently ranked 64th in net rating (+12.82) on KenPom. However, if there’s one thing this group does possess, it’s a superstar in Ebuka Okorie. The freshman phenom is pacing the ACC with 22.7 points per game this season. Okorie has notched at least 22 points in five of his last six appearances. Unfortunately, key contributor Chisom Okpara (lower body) is out for the remainder of the season.
Markus Burton, Notre Dame’s leading scorer (18.5 PPG), has been out since December due to a knee injury. That’s put an already limited offense in quite the predicament. Jalen Haralson (15.9 PPG) and Cole Certa (12.8 PPG) are still bright spots, but the rest of this roster is lacking. It’s a relatively undersized group as well, with just two rotation regulars (Brady Koehler, Garrett Sundra) taller than 6’7″. In comparison, Stanford possesses four such players.
It’s no coincidence that the Fighting Irish have gone 6-13 since Burton’s absence. They’ve scored more than 80 points just four times during that stretch, two of which came during overtime contests. On the other end of the floor, teams are taking 47.5% of their shots from three-point range vs. Notre Dame. That’s the 11th-highest percentage in all of college basketball this season. In comparison, Stanford is averaging 26.1 attempts per game from beyond the arc, sixth-most in the 18-team ACC. Cardinal guard Benny Gealer leads the conference with 42.4% shooting from long distance.
Stanford vs. Notre Dame pick, best bet
It’s worth noting that the Irish churned out a 47-40 win in Palo Alto when these schools met in December. However, that was the result of a surprisingly inefficient performance from Okorie (seven points on 3-of-14 shooting). It’s hard to envision a similar outcome occurring this evening. Stanford, with much more to play for, should come out firing.
