Just under a month ago, the Indiana Pacers and LA Clippers made one of the marquee trades of the trade deadline, one that will have massive implications on this summer’s NBA Draft lottery. Indiana, which desperately needs a center as it seeks to jump back to championship contention next season, traded its first-round pick as part of a package for the Clippers’ Ivica Zubac. The pick is protected between 1-4 and 10-30, so if it falls between fifth and ninth overall, it’ll be LA’s.
Zubac isn’t yet ready to make his Pacers debut, as the team is taking an extremely cautious approach to his return from the ankle sprain that he sustained in December with the Clippers. Three of Indiana’s starters are questionable, as Andrew Nembhard (back/neck), Aaron Nesmith (ankle), and Pascal Siakam (wrist) all have that designation. As for LA, John Collins (neck) is the only absence.
The Clippers are 12.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-700 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 227.5. The Pacers are +500 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s clash.
Bennedict Mathurin 20+ Points (-117)
The concept of a “Revenge Game” is a little bit overblown, as players don’t significantly over-perform their usual production in their first game against their former team. But 20 points isn’t too high of a bar for Mathurin, given that he’s hit it in three of his last six games. All in all, Mathurin is averaging 18.8 points per game in his eight contests with LA, trailing only Kawhi Leonard in usage rate across that span, and his 40-17-85 shooting splits are bound to improve. Tyronn Lue clearly trusts him, as he’s played 30.4 minutes per game.
20 points should hardly be a stretch for Mathurin against Indiana’s poor defense. For the season, the Pacers rank eighth-to-last in defensive rating, including second-to-last since the All-Star break. Indiana could be better if Nembhard ends up sitting, as he’s had a defensive impact worth negative-6.5 points per 100 possessions so far this season, but it’s not like rookie guard Kam Jones is a lockdown individual defender, either. Plus, Indiana has been the league’s third-most foul-prone team this season, and Mathurin has done an excellent job getting to the charity stripe.
Pascal Siakam 6+ Rebounds (-108)
There’s no guarantee that Siakam will play, and he’ll likely be on a minutes restriction if he does — given that he’s appeared in only one game since the All-Star break — but I feel good about his ability to control the boards. Prior to his injury, Siakam had snagged at least six boards in 33 of his 52 games, including 13 of his last 16. He’s even had at least six rebounds in five of the eight games in which he’s recorded fewer than 30 minutes, so he should be able to make an impact even if he’s on a minutes restriction. Siakam has also played center this season at his highest proportion since his Toronto Raptors tenure.
Meanwhile, the Clippers just aren’t a great rebounding team. For the season, they rank 17th in total rebounding percentage, and though they’ve improved slightly to 12th in the eight games since Mathurin’s debut, that doesn’t seem sustainable; they’ve been 2.9 percentage points worse without Zubac on the floor this season. The Pacers have improved on the glass with Mathurin on the floor only once in his four seasons, so it’s unlikely that his positive impact is sustainable. LA has regressed slightly as a finishing team since dealing away Zubac and James Harden, which could help give Siakam more rebound chances.
Darius Garland U1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-104)
Garland, a two-time All-Star with the Cleveland Cavaliers, was acquired in the deal for Harden and made his team debut on Monday night in a win over the Golden State Warriors. It was his first game in more than a month and a half after recovering from a toe injury, and his rust showed: he had two assists and five turnovers and went just two-for-seven from beyond the arc. All in all, Garland hasn’t had a great three-point shooting season — his 35.7% accuracy is his lowest since his rookie season — and with the Clippers relatively healthy, there are a lot of mouths to feed.
Three-point defense is one of the few things Indiana has done well this season. The Pacers allowed just 14.1 wide-open three-pointers per game during their run to the NBA Finals last season, the fourth-fewest among the 16 playoff games. Though that number has seen a slight uptick to 17.2 uncontested triples per game during the 2025-26 regular season, it’s still been good enough for the second-best in the league. Indiana’s ability to close out could be a major challenge for Garland, who has been wide-open on more than half of his three-point attempts.
