A pivotal showdown in the ACC is set to tip off on Wednesday. #22 Miami (23-6, 12-4) has enjoyed a massive turnaround under first-year head coach Jai Lucas. Now, the Hurricanes will look to pick up a Quad 1 win in Dallas. That won’t be easy against SMU (19-10, 8-8), a squad that can put up points in a hurry. The Mustangs are on the NCAA Tournament bubble; taking down a ranked foe would bolster their resume.
SMU enters Wednesday as 1.5-point favorites (-105) over Miami. The total is set at 160.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for this evening’s game between the Hurricanes and the Mustangs.
Miami vs. SMU prediction, preview
Following a dismal 2024-25 campaign, The U is back on track. As previously mentioned, Lucas has done a remarkable job this season in Coral Gables. The Hurricanes are currently 31st in net rating on KenPom (+20.51), bolstered by a fairly well-rounded roster. Four different players on this team are putting up double-digit points. Senior forward Malik Reneau has led the way in terms of scoring (19.6 PPG, 6.5 REB). He’s joined in the front court by Shelton Henderson (14.1 PPG, 4.9 REB) and Ernest Udeh (7.0 PPG, 9.5 REB).
Depth isn’t necessarily a strong suit for the Hurricanes. Lucas has kept his rotation small; only seven names are averaging ten or more minutes per game. While the defense is solid, this is an offensively-minded group. Miami is putting up 82.7 points per game, fifth-best in the ACC. A major weakness has been at the line. UM is knocking down just 67.6% of its free throws, 329th out of 365 Division I schools. The Canes prefer taking the ball to the rim. From long distance, they’re attempting a conference-low 19.1 three-pointers per game.
With respect to Miami, SMU is the offensive juggernaut in this matchup. The program is putting up 85.8 points per game, 18th-most in all of college basketball. Unlike their opponents tonight, the Mustangs utilize a guard-heavy approach. Kevin “Boopie” Miller has been terrific, leading the team with 18.9 points and 6.7 assists per game. Back court teammates Jaron Pierre (17.6 PPG) and B.J. Edwards (12.7 PPG) have been standouts, as well.
Much like The U, the Mustangs are also a bit top-heavy. Just one player off the bench is averaging more than 4.5 points per game. Unlike the Canes, this crew excels from beyond the arc. SMU is knocking down 37.9% of its three-pointers, second-best in the ACC. However, they only take 21.7 shot attempts from deep. Against a big Miami front court, the home team might need to stretch the floor more than usual.
SMU comes into this one with some major question marks defensively. On that end of the floor, the school wields a 106.3 adjusted efficiency rating, 110th on KenPom. However, the Mustangs’ biggest weakness is defending the perimeter. Teams are taking 47% of their shots from three-point range vs. Southern Methodist, tied for 13th-worst among all programs. That might not play a huge factor tonight against a Hurricanes team that doesn’t take many deep shots.
Miami vs. SMU pick, best bet
An inability to stretch the floor could come back to haunt Miami this evening. SMU is much better at defending inside the arc, with 7’2″ center Samet Yigitoglu down low. At home, where they’ve gone 15-2 this season, I’ll back the Mustangs as slight favorites.
