It’s a tale of two drastically different programs in the Atlantic 10. Loyola Chicago (7-22, 3-13), years removed from a miraculous Final Four run, looks like a shell of its former self. Regardless, the Ramblers are still playing for pride. They’ll attempt to take down conference heavyweight #25 Saint Louis (26-3, 14-2) on Wednesday. Despite a red-hot start, the Billikens have lost two of their last four games.
Saint Louis enters Wednesday as 22.5-point favorites (-110) over Loyola Chicago. The total is set at 155.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for tonight’s game between the Ramblers and the Billikens.
Loyola Chicago vs. Saint Louis prediction, preview
Utter collapse doesn’t really do this season justice for Loyola Chicago. Following a 25-win 2024-25 campaign, the team has won just seven games. So, what has gone so wrong in the Windy City? Among several factors, this offense is simply inept. The Ramblers are averaging just 66.8 points per game, 347th out of 365 Division I schools. Per KenPom, their 102.8 adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 295th in the nation. A glacial pace, ghastly turnover percentage (19.7%) and miserable shooting (30.9% 3PT) are all partially responsible.
Somehow, the other end of the floor has been just as bad, if not worse. Loyola Chicago has a 115.7 adjusted defensive efficiency, 301st on KenPom. This group struggles to generate pressure, posting college basketball’s third-worst steal percentage (6%). The Ramblers are also generous when it comes to giving up long-distance looks. Teams are taking 44.1% of their shots against them from three-point range. That’s not ideal when your offense is incapable of making up early deficits.
It’s a completely different story for Saint Louis, a program revitalized by head coach Josh Schertz. The former Indiana State play caller has brought his energetic, up-tempo offensive scheme to the Show-Me State. The Billikens rank 17th in adjusted tempo (71.3), leading to some impressive counting stats. Seven different players on the roster are averaging more than nine points per game. That includes center Robbie Avila, who leads the team in scoring (13.0 PPG) and assists (4.2 AST).
With that being said, this group isn’t one-dimensional. In fact, Saint Louis’ 99.3 adjusted defensive efficiency is good enough for 29th on KenPom. The Billikens have allowed more than 80 points in just three of their 29 outings this season. They’ve also held opponents to a 43.6% effective field goal percentage, best in college basketball. If there’s a notable weakness, it’s probably Avila down low. That could cause problems this evening against Ramblers center Miles Rubin (11.1 PPG, 7.2 REB).
Loyola Chicago vs. Saint Louis pick, best bet
I’m never seeking out a spread of 20 points or more. However, sometimes a team is so bad that it’s impossible not to fade them. That’s the scenario when it comes to Loyola Chicago. Saint Louis, despite its recent slip-ups, is still a ranked, formidable opponent. This should be light work for a Billikens squad with its eyes set on March.
