For the second of four straight events in Florida, the PGA TOUR is hosting the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge (par 72, 7,466 yards, Bermuda greens) in Orlando. This has been the home of the Arnold Palmer Invitational since 1979. Russell Henley (-11) won this event last season by one stroke and for this week, there will be 72 golfers competing and a cut after the first two rounds, with the top-50 and ties and any player within 10 shots advancing. The Arnold Palmer Invitational is one of the PGA TOUR’s eight Signature Events this season, so there will be a $20 million purse at stake this week.
Below, I have featured two of my favorite long shot outright bets to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jason Day (+7400)
Day is very fond of Bay Hill. The Aussie won at this venue in 2016 and he also finished T-8 here just last season, including 8-under 62 in the second round, which is Day’s career-low at Bay Hill. Excluding three withdrawals, the former major champion has made 10-of-11 cuts at the par 72, seven of which have been top-25 results.
Among this field, Day ranks ninth in strokes gained per round at Bay Hill. Plus, he ranks sixth in strokes gained per round at courses in Florida. Day has won twice in the Sunshine State and while he is coming off a missed cut at the Genesis Invitational, he had made six straight cuts before this, including a runner-up at the American Express in January.
Day ranks top-25 in both SGP and SG ARG this season, and his great short game sets him up nicely for his return to Bay Hill. For two years running, the winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational has finished the event top-10 in both SGP and SG ARG.
Ryan Fox (+14000)
Fox is one of the most underrated players in golf and these odds are far too long for him. Fox won twice on the PGA TOUR last season, winning the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic and the RBC Canadian Open. The 39-year-old also has four DP World Tour wins to his name and he currently is the No. 44 ranked player in the world.
Fox has made 10 consecutive cuts worldwide and he has carded six top-30 finishes during this streak. His best finish over this time came in his last start, when he finished T-7 at the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago, which like the Arnold Palmer Invitational, is a Signature Event that features the PGA TOUR’s top players competing for a $20 million purse.
Fox gained strokes on both approach and with his putter at Riviera CC, and he has shot under par in 11 of his last 12 rounds. Fox ranks 16th in total strokes gained on the PGA TOUR and he ranks 12th in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 200+ yards this season, which is terrific news for Bay Hill, as 24.6% of approach shots at this course over the last five years have come from 200+ yards. Fox finished T-14 in his only start at Bay Hill three years ago – including a 5-under 67 in the final round – and him shocking this stacked field with a win this week isn’t the craziest thought.
