The PGA TOUR has its third Signature Event of the season this week as the biggest names in the sport return to action at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. The 72-player field is set to begin the week with Round 1 on Thursday, as the first groups tee off at 7:40 a.m. ET. For Round 1, players will play in groups of two and all groups begin on the first hole. Let’s take a look a the wide variety of markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook and pinpoint some Arnold Palmer Invitational best bets for Round 1.
It should be a great week at the difficult course, which has played over par in each of the last nine seasons. It’s a par-72 layout that includes plenty of length, water, difficult rough, and fast Bermuda grass greens. The most well-known holes at Bay Hill are the par-5 6th, which is a monster that wraps around the lake, and the par-4 18th, which is a high-risk, high-reward hold bordered by bunkers and water all along the left side.
In this post, we’ll focus on my three best bets for Round 1. While Florida weather is always unpredictable, it looks like the wind will be fairly calm on Thursday, which should allow low scores to be possible.
Ryan Fox o3.5 Birdies or Better (+108)
Fox is playing with Florida’s own Billy Horschel in the third group off the tee in Round 1. While Horschel will be a fan favorite, Fox comes in with some very nice momentum, and I love getting his Birdies or Better over at plus money.
The 39-year-old from New Zealand won six times on the DP World Tour before winning twice on the PGA TOUR last year. He started this year back on the DP World Tour with a T27 at the Dubai Invitational and a T45 at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic. Since arriving on the PGA TOUR, he posted a T24 in Phoenix, a T24 at Pebble Beach, and a T7 at The Genesis Invitational in his most recent event.
He has gone over this prop line in seven straight rounds at Pebble Beach and Riviera in his last two Signature Events, totaling 39 birdies or better during that run for an average of 5.6 birdies or better per round on those two tracks.
Statistically, Bay Hill plays tougher than those courses overall, but Fox has had success on this track as well. He hasn’t played here since 2023, when he finished T14. In those four rounds, he had four, three, four and six birdies or better, going over this prop line in all but one of his four rounds on this course.
Given his success and his recent form, Fox has a good chance to get at least four birdies or better on Thursday.
Jason Day Round Score – Round 1 u72.5 (-120)
Day is another strong veteran option in Round 1, as he tees off at 11:20 a.m. ET alongside Ryan Gerard. Day only has to finish par or better to deliver the win on this prop, and the 38-year-old Aussie has plenty of experience to draw on at Bay Hill.
In his career, Day has played 12 events at Arnie’s Place with seven top-25 finishes, including three top-10 finishes and his win here in 2016. Day had to withdraw from this event in 2019 and 2020, but he has posted a 72 or better in nine of his 16 rounds since then (56%). Last year, he started with a 76 but then bounced back with rounds of 64 and 69 to finish in the top 10. Before finishing over this prop in Round 1 last year, he had been under it in eight of his previous nine tournaments at Bay Hill (not counting his two withdrawals).
Day comes back to Bay Hill this year with some solid early-season momentum. He finished T2 at The American Express and T24 at Pebble Beach, but he did miss the cut at The Genesis Invitational in his most recent event.
After getting a week off, he should be ready to roll back at a course he knows well, and he should be able to get in at even-par or better on Thursday.
Round 1 – 18 Hole Matchup (3-Way): Ludvig Aberg over Viktor Hovland (+104)
For the third play in my Arnold Palmer Ivitational best bets for Round 1, let’s grab a head-to-head matchup so that even if the course is playing hard, we’re just looking at two players teeing off at close to the same time. In this “3-way” matchup, a tie is scored as a loss rather than a push. However, I think Aberg will finish ahead of Hovland, so it’s a good way to boost this to a plus-money Round 1 best bet.
Aberg battled illness for the second straight season on the West Coast swing. He was off to a good start before having to withdraw from The American Express and then he missed the cut the following week at The Farmers Insurance Open. After recovering, he did look better with a T37 at Pebble Beach and a T20 at The Genesis. At Riviera, he opened with a 72 but then finished strong with a 68-69-66 run to finish the week.
He has been very steady at Bay Hill, with three finishes between T22 and T25 in the last three years. He did finish strong last year with a closing-round 68, which was his personal best in 12 rounds.
Hovland has a better long-term history at Bay Hill, highlighted by a runner-up finish in 2022, but he missed the cut here last year and has struggled off the tee so far this season. He started the year strong with a T10 at the WM Phoenix Open but scuffled to a T58 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a T41 at The Genesis Invitational. He’s actually 15th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 12 rounds but ranks 63rd in the 72-player field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.
Both players have much stronger upside than they have shown this season if they can find their top form. Of the two, though, Aberg has been steadier on this course and has looked closer to breaking through after shaking off his illness.
Aberg tees off at 1:00 p.m. ET with last week’s winner, Nico Echavarria, while Vik starts at 1:30 p.m. ET alongside Rory McIlroy. The matchup should be a fun one to track throughout the afternoon, and I’m taking Aberg to come out ahead of Hovland after Round 1.
