Wednesday’s college basketball slate is loaded with high-profile matchups. Tipping off at 9 p.m. ET, the Florida State Seminoles will visit the Pittsburgh Panthers in an ACC showdown.
Florida State enters as a 1.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Pittsburgh sits as a +105 underdog. The game total is set at 144.5 points.
Florida State vs. Pittsburgh prediction, preview
Florida State holds a 15-14 overall record and has gone 8-8 in ACC play. The Seminoles are coming off Saturday’s win over Georgia Tech and have won seven of their last nine games. They are 16-13 against the spread and have fallen below the game total in 16 of 29 games.
There have been some growing pains in Luke Loucks’ first season at the helm, coupled with the program’s evolving stylistic identity. But Florida State has largely settled in after a tough midseason stretch.
The program has scored 79.7 points per game, which ranks 96th in the country. They also sit 158th in offensive rating, 305th in field-goal percentage and 305th in three-point percentage. On the other end, the Seminoles rank 284th in opponent scoring, 206th in defensive rating, 195th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 235th in opponent three-point percentage.
Robert McCray V leads the team with 15.6 points per game, also averaging 5.6 assists and 3.8 rebounds. Chauncey Wiggins adds 12.5 points and 3.8 rebounds of his own. Lajae Jones is the lone other player to average in double figures, with 11.9 points and a team-high 5.8 rebounds per game. Kobe MaGee, Martin Somerville, Cam Miles, Alex Steen and Thomas Bassong also play a role in the team’s rotation.
Pittsburgh is 11-18 this season with a 4-12 mark in conference play. The Panthers picked up a convincing win over California on Saturday, but have dropped six of their last eight games. They are 14-15 against the spread and cleared the over in 16 of 29 games.
Jeff Capel’s squad ranks 311th in the country in scoring, 227th in offensive rating, 277th in field-goal percentage, and 204th in three-point accuracy. Defensively, the Panthers sit 108th in opponent scoring, 246th in defensive rating, 270th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 221st in opponent perimeter efficiency.
Cameron Corhen leads the team with 12.9 points and seven rebounds per game, shooting an impressive 37.1% from downtown. Brandin Cummings was right behind Corhen with 12.5 points per game, but he’ll miss the rest of the season after undergoing an ankle procedure. Barry Dunning Jr. adds 11.9 points and 5.7 rebounds, and Roman Siulepa chips in 10.4 points and 5.2 rebounds. Damarco Minor, Nojus Indrusaitis, and Omari Witherspoon also play key roles for the team.
Florida State vs. Pittsburgh pick, best bet
Neither of these teams shoots the ball particularly well, and my lean is toward the under in what should be a low-scoring matchup. However, I’m backing Florida State to cover the modest 1.5-point spread.
Robert McCray V presents a tough challenge for Pitt’s backcourt. Expect the senior guard to beat defenders off the dribble and create for others. Florida State will also have an advantage inside, which should be a difference maker. The Seminoles rank 129th in rebounds and 71st in offensive boards, while Pitt ranks 239th in rebounding.
The Seminoles also do an excellent job of forcing turnovers, which should present yet another problem for Pitt. Florida State ranks 47th in the country in opponent turnovers and has forced at least 21 takeaways in four games this season. Pittsburgh has taken care of the ball, though it likely stems from the team’s crawling pace, rather than its sound decision-making. Expect the Panthers to make mistakes if the Seminoles can speed them up.
Pittsburgh has been hampered by injuries this season, typically playing a six- or seven-man rotation. If sped up, they’ll have trouble keeping up with a deep and talented FSU lineup.
Florida State is 7-2 against the spread on the road, 1-0 as road favorites, and 10-6 ATS in conference play. Home court hasn’t presented Pittsburgh with much of an advantage this season, as it’s just 8-9 against the spread at the Petersen Events Center.
Expect Florida State to use its size, athleticism, and talent to overpower Pittsburgh and win by at least two points.
