The PGA TOUR’s 2026 season has another big name-elevated event on tap at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. With the API on this week, DraftKings users can play in DraftKings PGA Pick6 contests for all four rounds. If you’re new, Pick6 is a single-user daily fantasy game where you select players to go over or under the totals.
This week, the PGA heads to Bay Hill just outside Orlando, Florida, for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where players will compete in the coveted long-running tournament at the championship Par 72 golf course. This is a limited-field event with around 70 players, and the cut line will include the top 50 players and ties, which means most of the field will play the weekend. Bay Hill is notoriously tough thanks to an abundance of water, thick rough and heavy Florida winds. Precision iron play and great short games are vital to getting around Bay Hill.
I reviewed additional statistics and course dynamics in the Arnold Palmer Inv. PGA Cheat Sheet, which includes some notes on the course below for Pick6 research.
“Lately, Bay Hill has been set up to play as one of the toughest on the PGA TOUR, with the rough typically playing to ‘major championship’ caliber and the wind providing extra defense. The venue played as the hardest course on the PGA TOUR in 2020 — even compared to the major championship venues — and yielded just a 74.106 scoring average. In two of the last six seasons, the winning score has failed to exceed 5-under par, and in 2023, the winner posted 9-under. Last season, only two players reached double-digits under par, winner, Russell Henley (-11), and the second-place finisher, Collin Morikawa (-10).
As mentioned above, Bay Hill features Bermuda greens and, as a traditional par 72, also features four par 5s, none of which play longer than 570 yards. As such, these holes will still yield a lot of birdies or better, and most of the past winners here have tended to dominate these holes during the week. With wider fairways, strokes gained off the tee stats don’t tend to matter as much as you would think they would on a longer course. Top finishers at Bay Hill tend to gain far more on approach than any other category, and with plenty of tough approaches into water-protected greens, it’s easy to see why. The 2022 winner, Scottie Scheffler, actually lost strokes off the tee but led the field in approach stats, and the 2023 winner, Kurt Kitayama, only gained 0.4 strokes OTT (but gained 7.7 strokes around the green + putting).
Last year’s winner, Henley, also did little to set himself apart off the tee, but was first in strokes gained around the green and 10th in strokes gained putting.
What sets Bay Hill apart from some of the other Florida courses is the abundance of longer approaches. Thanks to some doglegs and forced layup holes, players tend to see quite a few longer approach shots (>200 yards or more), so long iron proximity is another stat to focus on outside of the regular strokes gained categories.”
As of now, we have Round 1 totals up on the Pick6 site for play, so that’s where we’ll be focusing this week. The weather looks fine for Round 1, although wind gusts are approaching 10mph, so expect short games to be tested early on. Again, expect tough scoring most of the week.
With that in mind, I’ve focused on a few of my favorite plays for Round 1 below.
Ludvig Aberg More Than 3.5 Birdies or Better
Aberg comes in finally starting to show some form. An early-season illness set him off-kilter, but his finish at the Genesis was positive as he shot a couple of lower weekend rounds to improve his finishing position. Overall, his performance at Bay Hill over the last couple of seasons has been promising as well. Outside of a poor round last year, where he shot 77 in Round 3, he was very much one of the best players going, despite finishing T-22.
Overall for the season, he ranks sixth in Birdie or Better % on the PGA, so with this low total for Round 1 (3.5), I was always going to be interested in making him an add. His recent form and the fact that there are four par 5s on Bay Hill make this my favorite play for Pick6 on Day 1.
Daniel Berger Less Than 72.5 strokes
Berger had trouble finding his footing on the greens at PGA National last week, but he struck the ball well overall. The American is still trying to find his next win after coming back from a long injury layoff, but he has looked good in spurts this season. He started his year with a T-6 at the Sony, and his finish last week, while not great on paper, was backed by great ball-striking, which saw him gain over 3.0 strokes on approach.
Berger hasn’t played Bay Hill as much as some of the other Florida venues, but it should still suit his game. His straight driving is great for staying out of the water, and if his putter rebounds this week, I would expect multiple rounds under par to be a great possibility. Overall, I have this total rated as slightly too big for Round 1, making the “Less Than” option the preferred play on his 72.5 total.
Min Woo Lee More Than 3.5 birdies or better
Min Woo Lee has quietly played some great golf this season already. He posted a second-place finish at Pebble Beach and followed that up with a solid T-12 at Riviera. His bigger hitting approach does make him volatile off the tee on these Florida setups, but he’s also had success at PGA National and PGA Sawgrass, where he finished top-10 a couple of seasons ago.
Much like Aberg, this total for Lee just seems too low, especially given his recent form. He’s 12th in Birdie or better %, and like Aberg, his distance off the tee gives him a big advantage on some of these par 5s. We could see him get in trouble a couple of times off the tee, but his aggressive play should pay off with lots of birdie chances as well, making this a solid add for me to finish off cards for Round 1.
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